化工日报：EG主港低位累库，价格震荡运行-20250812

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - period: None [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,414 yuan/ton (up 30 yuan/ton or 0.68% from the previous trading day), the spot price in the East China market was 4,488 yuan/ton (up 32 yuan/ton or 0.72% from the previous trading day), and the spot basis in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 78 yuan/ton (up 3 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 48 US dollars/ton (down 1 US dollar/ton month - on - month), and that of coal - based syngas EG was - 50 yuan/ton (down 28 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] - According to CCF data, the inventory at the main ports in East China was 55.3 tons (up 3.7 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data, it was 48.6 tons (up 5.9 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 9.6 tons, with a small increase in port inventory. The planned arrival at the East China main ports this week is 14.1 tons, and a small increase in inventory is expected [1] - On the supply side, the domestic synthetic gas - based EG production load has returned to a high level and can be further increased. Some EO - EG co - production plants are switching from EO to EG. Overseas, the Saudi sharq3 has shut down again, and a 750,000 - ton/year plant in Malaysia has restarted unsuccessfully, with the increase in EG imports lower than expected. On the demand side, there was concentrated restocking at the end - user level in July, and the inventory pressure of filament has been greatly relieved. The polyester load is expected to remain stable in the short term, and attention should be paid to the order connection in August. The balance sheet shows a small inventory build - up in August, with concentrated arrivals at the beginning of the month, but the increase in port inventory lacks sustainability [2] 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,414 yuan/ton (up 30 yuan/ton or 0.68% from the previous trading day), the spot price in the East China market was 4,488 yuan/ton (up 32 yuan/ton or 0.72% from the previous trading day), and the spot basis in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 78 yuan/ton (up 3 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 48 US dollars/ton (down 1 US dollar/ton month - on - month), and that of coal - based syngas EG was - 50 yuan/ton (down 28 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] - The domestic synthetic gas - based EG production load has returned to a high level and can be further increased [2] International Spread - No specific data or analysis provided in the given text Downstream Sales, Production and Operating Rate - There was concentrated restocking at the end - user level in July, and the inventory pressure of filament has been greatly relieved. The polyester load is expected to remain stable in the short term, and attention should be paid to the order connection in August [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory at the main ports in East China was 55.3 tons (up 3.7 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data, it was 48.6 tons (up 5.9 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 9.6 tons, with a small increase in port inventory. The planned arrival at the East China main ports this week is 14.1 tons, and a small increase in inventory is expected [1] - The balance sheet shows a small inventory build - up in August, with concentrated arrivals at the beginning of the month, but the increase in port inventory lacks sustainability [2]