五矿期货农产品早报-20250813

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The soybean/meal market has mixed long - and short - term factors. In the short term, the USDA's reduction in planting area is bullish for CBOT soybeans, but the global protein raw material supply surplus limits the upward momentum of soybean import costs. The domestic soybean meal market is in a seasonal supply surplus, with potential inventory reduction in September. [2][4] - The fundamentals of the oil market are supported by factors such as the US biodiesel policy, limited palm oil production potential in Southeast Asia, and low inventory in India and Southeast Asia. However, the upside is restricted by factors like annual - level oil production increase expectations and uncertain RVO rules. [9] - The price of Zhengzhou sugar is likely to continue to decline in the future, considering factors such as increasing import supply, high spot import profit, and expected increase in domestic planting area in the next season. [11] - The cotton market has a bullish market atmosphere but bearish fundamentals. In the short term, it may continue to fluctuate at a high level. [14] - The egg market may experience short - term fluctuations, and in the medium term, attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities after a rebound. [17] - For the hog market, medium - and long - term contracts are recommended to buy on dips, and attention should be paid to inter - month reverse spread opportunities for far - month contracts. [20] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soybean/Meal Important Information - On Tuesday night, US soybeans rose about 3% from the low. The USDA unexpectedly cut the planting area by 2.5 million acres, but the high yield per acre limited the increase. Rapeseed meal reversed from weakness to strength, driving soybean meal up. The Ministry of Commerce's anti - dumping preliminary ruling on Canadian rapeseed requires a 75% deposit for imports. The domestic soybean meal spot basis was stable on Monday, with good trading and提货, and the downstream inventory days increased slightly to 8.37 days. Last week, 2.1775 million tons of soybeans were crushed in China, and 2.3695 million tons are expected to be crushed this week. [2] - Rainfall in the US soybean - producing areas is expected to be favorable in the next two weeks. Brazilian soybean premiums are stable after rising. US soybeans are undervalued and in a supply - surplus state, with no clear directional driver, and may test previous lows. The import cost of domestic soybeans is rising slightly due to a single supply source. [2] Trading Strategy - In the short term, the USDA's significant reduction in planting area is bullish for CBOT soybeans. However, due to the global protein raw material supply surplus, the upward momentum of soybean import costs is insufficient. It is expected to maintain a stable and slightly rising trend. The domestic soybean meal market is in a seasonal supply surplus, and the spot end may start to reduce inventory in September. It is recommended to buy on dips at the low end of the cost range and pay attention to crushing margins and supply pressure at the high end, as well as Sino - US tariff progress and new supply - side drivers. [4] Oil Important Information - From August 1 - 10, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 453,230 tons, a 23.67% increase from the same period last month. [6] - Indonesia plans to implement the B50 biodiesel mandatory blending policy in 2026, but it may be difficult to start in January, and a series of tests will be carried out, which may take up to eight months. [6] - In July, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.812417 million tons, a 7.09% month - on - month increase; inventory was 2.113278 million tons, a 4.02% month - on - month increase, lower than Reuters' expectation of 2.25 million tons; imports were 61,039 tons, a 12.82% month - on - month decrease; and exports were 1.309059 million tons, a 3.82% month - on - month increase. [6] - On Tuesday, domestic palm oil continued to rise. Foreign capital increased net long positions in the three major oils during the day. Stable demand from importing countries and low inventory in Southeast Asia provided continuous bullish factors. Rapeseed oil rose sharply due to the anti - dumping preliminary ruling but fell after some profits were realized at night. The domestic spot basis was stable at a low level. [7][8] Trading Strategy - Fundamentally, the US biodiesel policy draft, limited palm oil production potential in Southeast Asia, low inventory of vegetable oils in India and Southeast Asia, and the expectation of Indonesia's B50 policy support the oil price center. If demand countries maintain normal imports and palm oil production is at a neutral level from July to September, the origin inventory may remain stable, supporting a strong and volatile origin price. There may be an upward expectation in the fourth quarter due to the B50 policy. However, the current valuation is relatively high, and the upside is restricted by factors such as annual - level oil production increase expectations, high palm oil production in the near term, undetermined RVO rules, and macro and demand adjustments in major importing countries. It should be viewed as a volatile market. [9] Sugar Important Information - On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price rebounded. The closing price of the January contract was 5,608 yuan/ton, a 0.63% increase from the previous trading day. The spot prices of sugar groups in Guangxi and Yunnan increased, and the mainstream quotation of processing sugar factories also increased. Brazil exported 109,400 tons of sugar in the first week of August, with an average daily export of 18,200 tons, a 2% increase from the average daily export in August last year. [10] Trading Strategy - In the second half of the year, the increasing import supply will squeeze the sales space of domestic sugar. The spot import profit outside the quota has been at the highest level in the past five years, and the futures valuation is high. Considering the expected increase in domestic planting area in the next season, if the external market price does not rebound significantly, the price of Zhengzhou sugar is likely to continue to decline. [11] Cotton Important Information - On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price rebounded. The closing price of the January contract was 13,980 yuan/ton, a 0.72% increase from the previous trading day. The spot price of Xinjiang machine - picked cotton increased, and the basis was 995 yuan/ton. On August 12, China and the US announced the continuation of suspending reciprocal tariffs and counter - measures for 90 days. [13] Trading Strategy - The suspension of reciprocal tariffs and counter - measures between China and the US for 90 days has strengthened the domestic commodity market. Fundamentally, the downstream consumption is average, the operating rate is at a low level, and the cotton inventory reduction speed has slowed down. With a bullish market atmosphere but bearish fundamentals, it may continue to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. [14] Eggs Important Information - The domestic egg price was mostly stable, with a slight increase in a few areas. The average price in the main production areas rose 0.01 yuan to 3.03 yuan/jin. The supply was mostly sufficient, traders actively sold goods, and the downstream digestion speed was average, with a slight improvement in the digestion of low - priced eggs. Traders were cautious and mostly saw stable prices. [16] Trading Strategy - The continuous increase in newly - hatched chickens and limited culling of laying hens have led to a large supply scale. The egg price in the peak season is weaker than expected, and the futures price has a premium. The near - month contracts are particularly weak. However, with the expectation of a spot price rebound and the risk of fluctuations due to high positions at a low level, the futures market may fluctuate in the short term. In the medium term, attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities after a rebound. [17] Hogs Important Information - The domestic hog price was mostly stable, with slight fluctuations in some areas. The average price in Henan rose 0.04 yuan to 13.73 yuan/kg, and that in Sichuan remained unchanged at 13.31 yuan/kg. Some breeding groups in the north and southwest regions intended to reduce supply and raise prices, which may drive a slight increase in the hog price. In some areas, the supply and demand were weak, restricting each other, and the price may remain stable. [19] Trading Strategy - The continuous weakening of the spot price is in contrast to the futures price. As the trading average weight decreases, the release of current inventory will help relieve the supply pressure in the third and fourth quarters, and the high fat - to - standard price difference provides room for future pressure on hog storage. It is recommended to buy on dips for medium - and long - term contracts but not to chase high prices. For far - month contracts, attention should be paid to inter - month reverse spread opportunities due to the difficult - to - falsify expectation of policy - driven production capacity reduction. [20]