宝城期货国债期货早报-20250813

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2509 is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, the intraday view is slightly bullish, and the overall view is volatile. The core logic is that there is still an expectation of loose monetary policy, but the possibility of an interest rate cut in the short term is low [1]. - For the main bond futures varieties (TL, T, TF, TS), the intraday view is slightly bullish, the medium - term view is volatile, and the overall reference view is volatile. The core logic is that bond futures oscillated and corrected yesterday. The Politburo meeting in July reiterated the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy, which increased the expectation of future easing. Since August, bond futures have rebounded after hitting the bottom. Due to the strong resilience of macro - economic data in the first half of the year, the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged overseas, and the rising risk appetite in the domestic stock market, the necessity and possibility of an interest rate cut in the short term are low. However, as the market interest rate approached the policy rate at the end of July, the anchoring effect of the policy rate emerged, limiting the further rise of the market interest rate. In general, bond futures will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Catalog: Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Index Sector - For the variety TL2509, short - term: volatile; medium - term: volatile; intraday: slightly bullish; overall view: volatile. Core logic: There is an expectation of loose monetary policy, but the short - term possibility of an interest rate cut is low [1]. Catalog: Main Variety Price and Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, TS, intraday view: slightly bullish; medium - term view: volatile; reference view: volatile. Core logic: Bond futures oscillated and corrected yesterday. The July Politburo meeting increased the expectation of future easing, and bond futures rebounded after hitting the bottom in August. The short - term possibility of an interest rate cut is low, and the rise of the market interest rate is limited. Bond futures will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [5].