锂供应扰动延续，锂价继续领涨新能源金属

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Industrial Silicon: Expected to fluctuate within a positive or negative one - standard - deviation range in the future 2 - 12 weeks, rated as "oscillating" [7][52] - Polysilicon: Subject to price fluctuations. If the anti - involution policy expectation fades, there is a risk of reverse price movement. The current assessment is based on the impact of policy implementation, and no specific rating is clearly given, but the price is in a state of wide - range fluctuation [10][11][12] - Lithium Carbonate: Expected to have a 1 - 2 standard - deviation increase in the future 2 - 12 weeks, rated as "oscillating and bullish" [13][52] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trading logic of new energy metals is that the Central Financial Work Conference mentioned the orderly elimination of backward production capacity, strengthening investors' expectations of supply - side contraction for silicon. There are also disruptions in domestic lithium supply, such as the shutdown of a large lithium mine in Jiangxi and a production accident in a lithium carbonate production line in Chile, which boost lithium prices, making lithium lead the rise among new energy metals. In the short and medium term, the expectations of supply - side contraction and cost increase support new energy metal prices, and lithium supply disruptions may push up lithium prices in the short term. However, there is an extreme risk of rising lithium prices. For silicon, the current supply and demand are weak, and the upward momentum of silicon prices is slowing down. In the long term, if there is no substantial supply - side contraction or obvious improvement in demand, silicon prices may decline, and the high growth of lithium carbonate supply will limit the upside of lithium prices [2] Summary by Related Catalogs I. Market Views 1. Industrial Silicon - Viewpoint: Market sentiment fluctuates, and silicon prices continue to be volatile. The medium - term outlook is "oscillating" [7] - Information Analysis: As of August 12, the spot prices of industrial silicon fluctuated. The domestic inventory decreased by 0.9% month - on - month, with factory inventory down 1.5% month - on - month. In July 2025, the monthly output increased by 3.2% month - on - month and decreased by 30.6% year - on - year. From January to July, the cumulative production decreased by 20.0% year - on - year. In June, exports increased by 22.8% month - on - month and 11.6% year - on - year. From January to June 2025, cumulative exports decreased by 6.6% year - on - year. In June, domestic new photovoltaic installations decreased by 38.45% year - on - year, and from January to June, cumulative installations increased by 107.07% year - on - year. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the trading limits for some industrial silicon contracts [7] - Main Logic: The supply of industrial silicon continues to recover. In August, the supply pressure may increase. Demand shows some improvement, but the increase in demand from the aluminum alloy sector is limited. Inventory is expected to accumulate further, and there is a risk of market pressure [7] - Outlook: In the short term, silicon prices will continue to oscillate under the influence of macro - sentiment and coal prices. The resumption of production by large factories will be the key factor. If there is concentrated resumption of production, prices may be further suppressed [8] 2. Polysilicon - Viewpoint: Market sentiment is volatile, and polysilicon prices fluctuate widely. The medium - term outlook is not clearly rated but is in a state of wide - range fluctuation [8][10] - Information Analysis: The average transaction price of N - type polysilicon increased by 0.21% week - on - week. The number of polysilicon warehouse receipts increased. In June, exports increased by 5.96% month - on - month and decreased by 39.67% year - on - year. From January to June 2025, cumulative exports decreased by 7.23% year - on - year. Imports in June increased by 40.3% month - on - month, and from January to June 2025, cumulative imports decreased by 47.59% year - on - year. From January to June 2025, domestic new photovoltaic installations increased by 107% year - on - year [8] - Main Logic: Macro - economically, the anti - involution sentiment is volatile, and rising coal prices boost polysilicon prices. In terms of supply, production is expected to continue to increase in August. In the long term, it is necessary to pay attention to whether anti - involution policies will restrict supply. On the demand side, the high growth of photovoltaic installations in the first five months has overdrafted the demand for the second half of the year, and there is a risk of weakening demand [11] - Outlook: The anti - involution policy has a significant impact on polysilicon prices. It is necessary to pay attention to the implementation of the policy. If the policy expectations fade, prices may fluctuate in the opposite direction [12] 3. Lithium Carbonate - Viewpoint: Market sentiment has subsided, and lithium prices retreated in the late trading session. The medium - term outlook is "oscillating and bullish" [12][13] - Information Analysis: On August 12, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 1.88% compared to the previous day, opening high and closing low. The total position increased by 52,662 lots. The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased, and the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate was equivalent to 79,200 yuan/ton of lithium carbonate. The warehouse receipts increased by 1,440 tons [12] - Main Logic: The reduction of production at Ningde Times' Jiaxiawo Mine will be the focus of market games. Fundamentally, there is not much change. Weekly production has rebounded, and the formal shutdown of the Jiaxiawo Mine will reduce weekly ore supply by more than 2,000 tons of LCE. Current demand is not significantly exceeding expectations, and social inventory is slightly increasing. In the future, there will be a large supply - demand gap in the domestic market, but high prices may stimulate supply release. Currently, call options can be held, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of positive spreads between months [13] - Outlook: The supply - demand gap caused by the shutdown is expected to keep prices oscillating and bullish [13] II. Market Monitoring 1. Industrial Silicon - The content mainly focuses on the information analysis and logic in the market views section, including price, inventory, production, exports, and policy adjustments [7] 2. Polysilicon - The content mainly includes price information, warehouse receipt changes, import and export data, and the impact of policies and market sentiment on prices in the market views section [8][11] 3. Lithium Carbonate - The content mainly involves price, position, warehouse receipt changes, and the impact of production shutdowns on supply - demand balance and price trends in the market views section [12][13]