五矿期货贵金属日报-20250813

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the text. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The release of the US July CPI data last night is generally favorable for the Fed to implement further easing policies. With the weakening of US economic data and the easing of inflation, the Fed's implementation of further loose monetary policy is certain. It is recommended to buy precious metals on dips, with the reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold being 766 - 787 yuan/gram and for the main contract of Shanghai Silver being 9075 - 9520 yuan/kilogram [2][4]. Summary According to Relevant Contents Market Quotes - Shanghai Gold (Au) fell 0.11% to 776.28 yuan/gram, and Shanghai Silver (Ag) rose 0.39% to 9205.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX Gold rose 0.11% to 3402.60 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX Silver fell 0.11% to 37.96 US dollars/ounce; the US 10 - year Treasury yield was reported at 4.29%, and the US dollar index was reported at 98.05 [2]. - The closing prices and changes of various precious metal varieties and related indicators are presented in detailed tables, including Au(T + D), London Gold, SPDR Gold ETF holdings, etc. For example, Au(T + D) closed at 773.17 yuan/gram, down 2.69 yuan or - 0.35% from the previous trading day [5]. US CPI Data Analysis - The US July CPI year - on - year value was 2.7%, lower than the expected 2.8% and in line with the previous value, and the month - on - month value was 0.2%, in line with expectations and lower than the previous value of 0.3%. The core CPI year - on - year value was 3.1%, higher than the expected 3% and the previous value of 2.9%, and the month - on - month value was 0.3%, in line with expectations and higher than the previous value of 0.2% [2]. - The lower - than - expected overall CPI in July was due to the decline in oil prices, and the higher - than - expected core CPI was due to the "sudden" increase in used - car inflation compared to the previous month, along with the impact of imported inflation on household prices. In terms of overall CPI, the energy - related CPI year - on - year value decreased by 1.6%, and the month - on - month value decreased by 1.1%, mainly driven by the decline in oil prices. In terms of core inflation, the housing inflation with a high proportion continued to decline slowly, and the used - car price index year - on - year value in July was 4.8%, significantly higher than the previous value of 2.8%, and the month - on - month value rose from - 0.7% in June to + 0.5%, which was the main contributor to the higher - than - expected core CPI year - on - year value [3]. Market Outlook and Strategy - With the weakening of US economic data and the easing of inflation, the Fed's implementation of further loose monetary policy is certain. It is recommended to buy precious metals on dips, with the reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold being 766 - 787 yuan/gram and for the main contract of Shanghai Silver being 9075 - 9520 yuan/kilogram [4]. Data Graphs and Analysis - Multiple graphs are presented, including the relationship between COMEX gold price and the US dollar index, the relationship between COMEX gold price and real interest rate, the price and volume relationship of Shanghai Gold and Shanghai Silver, the near - far month structure of COMEX gold and silver, the net long positions of COMEX gold and silver management funds, the total holdings of gold and silver ETFs, and the internal and external price differences of gold and silver [12][22][41].