Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The short - term copper price may fluctuate strongly due to factors such as the expected Fed rate cut, tight copper raw material supply, and the expected increase in supply after the implementation of US copper tariffs [1]. - The short - term aluminum price may face the pressure of digesting inventory accumulation after the upward movement, supported by the relatively low domestic aluminum ingot inventory and the expected "anti - involution" policy [3]. - The short - term lead price may be difficult to fall due to the possible structural disturbances in the LME market and the narrowing supply [4]. - The short - term zinc price may be difficult to fall under the support of low LME warehouse receipts, although the medium - term industrial surplus situation remains unchanged [6]. - The short - term tin price is expected to fluctuate in a certain range due to the short - term supply - demand weakness [7]. - The short - term nickel price may have a slight rebound but still has the pressure of correction as the downstream demand improvement is limited [9]. - For lithium carbonate, it is recommended that speculative funds wait and see, while holders can choose the entry point according to their own operations, and pay attention to industry chain information and market sentiment [11]. - For alumina, it is recommended to lay out short positions at high levels after the short - term bullish sentiment in the commodity market fades [14]. - The short - term stainless steel market is expected to be optimistic, and the price may show a strong - side fluctuating trend [16]. - The price upward space of casting aluminum alloy is relatively limited due to the weak supply - demand situation in the off - season and the large difference between futures and spot prices [18]. Summary by Metals Copper - Price: LME copper closed up 1.17% to $9840/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 79410 yuan/ton [1]. - Inventory: LME inventory decreased by 700 to 155000 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 0.3 to 2.6 million tons [1]. - Market: The domestic copper spot import loss was within 100 yuan/ton, and the scrap copper substitution advantage slightly decreased [1]. - Outlook: The short - term copper price may fluctuate strongly, with the SHFE copper main contract operating in the range of 78800 - 80000 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M in the range of 9700 - 9900 dollars/ton [1]. Aluminum - Price: LME aluminum closed up 1.41% to $2622/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 20800 yuan/ton [3]. - Inventory: The domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory increased by 0.45 to 43.25 million tons [3]. - Market: The spot discount in East China narrowed, and the trading improved [3]. - Outlook: The short - term aluminum price may face inventory digestion pressure, with the domestic main contract operating in the range of 20700 - 20900 yuan/ton and LME aluminum 3M in the range of 2590 - 2640 dollars/ton [3]. Lead - Price: SHFE lead index closed up 0.21% to 16920 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell to $2004.5/ton [4]. - Inventory: The domestic social inventory slightly increased to 6.43 million tons [4]. - Market: The lead ore port inventory increased, and the supply narrowed slightly, while the downstream consumption pressure was large [4]. - Outlook: The short - term lead price may be difficult to fall [4]. Zinc - Price: SHFE zinc index closed up 0.17% to 22637 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell to $2829/ton [6]. - Inventory: The domestic social inventory continued to increase to 11.92 million tons [6]. - Market: The zinc ore was in a loose situation, and the LME market had structural disturbances [6]. - Outlook: The short - term zinc price may be difficult to fall [6]. Tin - Price: On August 12, 2025, the SHFE tin main contract closed at 270280 yuan/ton, up 0.67% [7]. - Inventory: The SHFE futures registered warehouse receipts increased by 71 to 7397 tons, and LME inventory increased by 15 to 1765 tons [7]. - Market: The supply recovery expectation increased, but the short - term smelting was under raw material pressure, and the domestic consumption was weak while the overseas demand was strong [7]. - Outlook: The short - term tin price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 250000 - 275000 yuan/ton for domestic and 31000 - 34000 dollars/ton for LME [7]. Nickel - Price: The price of high - nickel iron increased, and the refined nickel spot trading was still weak [9]. - Market: The short - term macro - atmosphere was positive, but the downstream demand improvement was limited [9]. - Outlook: The short - term nickel price may have a slight rebound but still face correction pressure, with the SHFE nickel main contract operating in the range of 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton and LME nickel 3M in the range of 14500 - 16500 dollars/ton [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Price: The MMLC index increased by 2.57%, and the LC2511 contract closed up 1.88% [11]. - Market: The bullish sentiment driven by the shutdown of large domestic mines was stronger than the fundamental change, and the capital game had high uncertainty [11]. - Outlook: It is recommended that speculative funds wait and see, and holders choose the entry point according to their own operations, with the LC2511 contract operating in the range of 79000 - 87000 yuan/ton [11][12]. Alumina - Price: The alumina index increased by 4.12% to 3334 yuan/ton, and the spot prices in Shandong and Shanxi decreased by 5 yuan/ton [14]. - Market: The ore supply was disturbed, but the over - capacity pattern remained [14]. - Outlook: It is recommended to lay out short positions at high levels after the short - term bullish sentiment fades, with the domestic main contract AO2509 operating in the range of 3100 - 3500 yuan/ton [14]. Stainless Steel - Price: The stainless steel main contract closed at 13200 yuan/ton, down 0.19% [16]. - Inventory: The social inventory decreased to 110.63 million tons, and the 300 - series inventory decreased by 2.82% [16]. - Market: The market was short of goods, and the sentiment of holding back goods increased [16]. - Outlook: The short - term stainless steel market is expected to be optimistic, and the price may fluctuate strongly [16]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - Price: The AD2511 contract slightly increased to 20140 yuan/ton, and the domestic mainstream ADC12 average price decreased by 25 yuan/ton [18]. - Inventory: The domestic three - place recycled aluminum alloy ingot inventory increased to 3.15 million tons [18]. - Market: The supply - demand was weak in the off - season, and the cost support was strong [18]. - Outlook: The price upward space is relatively limited [18].
五矿期货早报有色金属-20250813
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-08-13 01:00