研究所晨会观点精萃：美国7月通胀数据不及预期，全球风险偏好升温-20250813

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The inflation data in the US in July was lower than expected, leading to an increase in global risk appetite. The expectation of a Fed rate cut in September has strengthened, and the US President and Treasury Secretary have called for rate cuts. In China, the manufacturing PMI in July decreased, economic growth slowed down, but policies such as personal consumption loan fiscal subsidies and the extension of the Sino - US tariff truce period may boost domestic risk appetite. [2] - Different asset classes have different trends: the stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly at a high level in the short term, the treasury bond may experience a high - level shock and correction, and different commodity sectors have different short - term trends. [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - financial - Overseas: The US CPI annual rate in July was 2.7%, the core CPI annual rate reached a five - month high at 3.1%. The expectation of a Fed rate cut in September has strengthened. The US dollar index declined, and global risk appetite increased. [2] - Domestic: China's manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The trade deficit decreased, and the policy of personal consumption loan fiscal subsidies may boost consumption. The Sino - US tariff truce was extended by 90 days, and domestic risk appetite continued to rise. [2] - Asset Performance: The stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly at a high level in the short term, with a short - term cautious long position. The treasury bond is expected to experience a high - level shock and correction, with cautious observation. Different commodity sectors have different trends, with short - term cautious long or observation strategies. [2] Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as brain - computer interface, lithography machine, and diversified finance, the domestic stock market continued to rise. [3] - The economic growth in July slowed down, but policies may boost consumption, and the short - term macro - upward drive has increased. The market focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and trade negotiation progress. Follow - up attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and domestic incremental policies, with a short - term cautious long position. [3][4] Precious Metals - On Tuesday, precious metals fluctuated at a high level. The inflation data in the US in July was mixed, supporting the probability of a rate cut in September. The economic data continued to weaken, and the market expected a 94.8% probability of a Fed rate cut in September. Gold has a long - term bullish outlook, and long - term positions can be considered when it pulls back to the support level. [5] Black Metals - Steel: The spot and futures prices of steel continued to rebound on Tuesday. The market risk appetite increased due to the extension of the Sino - US tariff truce. The actual demand continued to weaken, and the inventory increased. The scope of production restrictions expanded, and the steel market was dominated by the macro - logic in the short term, with prices fluctuating strongly. [6] - Iron Ore: The spot and futures prices of iron ore continued to strengthen on Tuesday. The scope of production restrictions in the north expanded, and the iron ore supply decreased. The steel mills mainly replenished inventory on a need - basis. The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term. [6][7] - Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron: The spot prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron were flat on Tuesday, and the futures prices rebounded slightly. The demand for ferroalloys was acceptable, and the production in some regions increased. The ferroalloy price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term. [8] Chemicals - Soda Ash: The main contract of soda ash was strong on Tuesday, driven by the expectation of supply tightening. The supply of soda ash increased, and the pattern of oversupply remained. The demand support was weak, and the profit decreased. The upward space of soda ash is limited. [9] - Glass: The main contract of glass fluctuated within a range on Tuesday. The daily melting volume of glass remained stable. The market expected production cuts due to policies. The terminal demand was weak, and the profit decreased. The glass price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term. [10][11] Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - Copper: The Sino - US tariff truce was extended by 90 days, and the risk appetite rebounded. The Fed's dovish stance was strengthened. The Comex copper inventory was at a high level, and the terminal demand faced the risk of weakening. [12] - Aluminum: The closing price of aluminum rose slightly on Tuesday, affected by the general rise in commodities and the sharp rise in alumina. The fundamentals of aluminum weakened, with inventory accumulation. The medium - term upward space is limited. [12] - Aluminum Alloy: The supply of scrap aluminum was tight, and the production cost of recycled aluminum plants increased. The demand was weak in the off - season. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the upward space is limited. [12] - Tin: The combined operating rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi increased slightly. The supply of ore was tight, but the reduction in refined tin production was lower than expected. The terminal demand was weak, and the inventory decreased. The tin price is expected to fluctuate in the short term. [13] - Lithium Carbonate: The price of lithium carbonate opened high and closed low on Tuesday. The supply was affected by the suspension of a mine, and the market was bullish. The monthly supply - demand pattern changed from surplus to shortage. The trading margin and price limit were adjusted. [14] - Industrial Silicon: The price of industrial silicon decreased on Tuesday. It was affected by the high price of polysilicon, cost factors, and market sentiment, and fluctuated strongly. [15][16] - Polysilicon: The price of polysilicon rose on Tuesday. The increase in warehouse receipts reflected the willingness of enterprises for hedging and delivery. The photovoltaic industry had expectations, and the price was supported by the spot price. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. [16] Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: The market evaluated the impact of the extension of the Sino - US tariff truce and the potential impact of the US - Russia summit. The lack of major drivers led to a weak - oscillation pattern in oil prices. [17] - Asphalt: The cost of crude oil stabilized, and the asphalt price fluctuated slightly. The inventory removal was limited, and it is expected to maintain a weak - oscillation pattern in the short term. [17][18] - PX: The PX price fluctuated narrowly. The PTA device had production cuts, and the PX device load was limited. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, waiting for changes in the PTA device. [18] - PTA: The downstream filament planned to continue production cuts. The PTA basis increased slightly, and the demand was limited. The processing fee was low, and the supply pressure decreased. It is expected to balance supply and demand in August and oscillate within a range. [18] - Ethylene Glycol: The price increased slightly with the coal - based cost. The inventory pressure was still high, and the supply was expected to increase. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, with limited upward space. [19] - Short Fiber: The price of short fiber decreased due to the weakening of the sector. The terminal orders were average, and the inventory increased. It is expected to be short - biased in the medium term. [20][21] - Methanol: The price of methanol in Taicang fluctuated upward. The supply decreased, and the demand in the inland increased. The inventory in the port increased. The overall supply - demand contradiction was not prominent, and it is expected to oscillate. [21] - PP: The spot market of PP was sorted out narrowly. The cost - profit improved, the supply increased, and the demand was in the off - season. The price of the 09 contract may have limited fluctuations, and the 01 contract is short - biased. [21] - LLDPE: The price of LLDPE increased. The supply pressure remained, and the demand showed signs of improvement. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract is short - biased in the short term. [22] Agricultural Products - US Soybeans: The 8 - month USDA soybean supply - demand adjustment was unexpectedly bullish. The expected harvest area of US soybeans decreased, the yield per acre increased, the export volume decreased, and the ending inventory decreased. The global ending inventory also decreased. [23] - Soybean and Rapeseed Meal: The cost of imported soybeans was expected to be stable, and the worry about supply contraction in the fourth quarter was relieved. The import of Canadian rapeseed may be blocked, and the domestic soybean meal substitution consumption is expected to increase. The price of domestic soybean and rapeseed meal is expected to rise further in the short term. [24] - Soybean and Rapeseed Oil: The inventory of rapeseed oil in the port was high, and the supply contraction was expected. The cost of soybean oil was stable, and the supply - demand situation improved in the fourth quarter. The palm oil price was supported by factors such as inventory and import demand. The overall valuation of oils and fats was slightly high, and attention should be paid to the supplementary increase of soybean oil. [24] - Corn: The supply of corn in Anhui and Xinjiang is expected to be sufficient in late August. The spot price is stable in August, and the basis is good, which has a certain stabilizing effect on the futures. [25][26] - Pigs: After consecutive price drops, farmers were reluctant to sell at low prices. The slaughter volume may decrease, and the supply pressure may be relieved after the Beginning of Autumn. The pig price may stabilize. [26]