中原期货晨会纪要-20250813

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China and the US have agreed to suspend the implementation of 24% tariffs for another 90 days starting from August 12, 2025, which may allow the risk - preference in the capital market to continue [22]. - The A - share market is currently in a slow - bull trend, and in August, during the policy window period and the concentrated disclosure period of interim reports, the market may experience local hot - spot rotation. Investors should focus on sectors with strong performance prospects [23]. - For A - shares, the main stock indexes continue the trend of oscillating upward. It is recommended to follow the trend in investment, pay attention to locking in profits during rapid rallies, and look for low - buying opportunities in IF, IM, and IC [23][25]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - news - China and the US issued a joint statement on the Stockholm economic and trade talks. Both sides will continue to suspend the implementation of 24% tariffs for 90 days starting from August 12. China will also continue to suspend relevant measures on the unreliable entity list [9]. - Three departments jointly issued a plan for fiscal interest subsidies on personal consumption loans, and nine departments including the Ministry of Finance issued a plan for fiscal interest subsidies on loans to service - industry business entities [9]. - The US CPI in July was flat year - on - year at 2.7%, lower than expected, while the core CPI rose 3.1% year - on - year, higher than expected. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September with a probability of over 90% [10]. - The preliminary ruling of the Ministry of Commerce shows that there is dumping of imported rapeseed from Canada and halogenated butyl rubber from Canada and Japan. Temporary anti - dumping measures will be implemented starting from August 14, and an anti - dumping investigation will be launched on imported pea starch from Canada [10]. - The adjustment of domestic refined oil prices has been shelved this time [10]. - The Lithium Industry Branch of the China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association issued an initiative to resist "involution - style" malicious competition, and eight dry - process lithium battery separator enterprises reached a consensus on anti - involution [11]. 3.2 Morning Meeting Views on Main Varieties 3.2.1 Agricultural Products - Peanut market prices are basically stable, with a pattern of weak supply and demand. It is expected to be strongly oscillating in the short term but still in a downward trend [14]. - The sugar market has a situation of mixed long and short factors. It is recommended to wait and see. If it effectively breaks through the 5630 pressure level, a light - position long position can be tried [14]. - The corn market also has mixed long and short factors. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, focusing on the competition at the 2260 key level [14]. - The national average price of live pigs is falling steadily. The futures price is expected to maintain an interval oscillation [14]. - The spot price of eggs is stabilizing. The futures market has a large selling pressure, and it is recommended to avoid long positions [14][15]. - The cotton price is oscillating upward, but it still lacks a core driving force in the short term. Attention should be paid to the USDA report and subsequent news [15]. 3.2.2 Energy and Chemicals - The domestic urea market price continues to be weak. The supply pressure is expected to increase, and the futures price may continue to oscillate and consolidate [17]. - The caustic soda market in Shandong is stable, and it is recommended to pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread [17]. 3.2.3 Industrial Metals - The coking coal and coke prices are expected to remain strong in the short term due to the news of coking enterprise production restrictions [18]. - The copper price continues to oscillate and consolidate, and the aluminum price is expected to continue high - level adjustment due to factors such as increased supply and weak demand [18]. - The alumina market is in an oversupply pattern and is expected to continue interval consolidation [18]. - The steel price is expected to maintain an oscillating and upward trend due to cost increases and production - reduction expectations [18]. - The ferrosilicon and ferromanganese futures prices are oscillating, and the market is mainly affected by macro and coal industry policies, showing an interval oscillation with a rising center of gravity [21]. - The lithium carbonate futures price has risen, with strong expectations but weak reality in the fundamentals. It is recommended to operate within the range, and pay attention to the progress of mining license renewals and terminal restocking [21]. 3.2.4 Options and Finance - On August 12, the three major A - share indexes rose collectively. The futures and options markets of various indexes showed different trends. Trend investors should pay attention to the strength - based arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors can buy straddles to bet on increased volatility [21][22].