金信期货日刊-20250813

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Views - On August 12, the soda ash futures closed at 1409 yuan, up 71 yuan or 5.31% from the previous day, with the highest reaching 1429 yuan. The rise was driven by macro - policies and cost factors. However, there are many uncertainties in the future trend. If there is no substantial positive support, the price may fall to the cost line [3]. - The three major A - share indices had a volatile day, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing with a mid - yang line for 7 consecutive days. The suspension of 24% tariffs between China and the US for 90 days is positive for A - shares, and the operation strategy is to go long on dips [6]. - The lower - than - expected July non - farm payrolls data and the downward revision of May and June data increase the probability of a September interest rate cut in the US, which is positive for gold. Currently, the weekly adjustment is sufficient, and it is in a short - term small - range oscillation [10]. - The iron ore market has a strong fundamental support due to high molten iron production and optimistic market sentiment. Technically, it rebounded significantly, and the strategy is to go long on dips [14][15]. - The glass market has a slightly improved supply - demand situation, mainly driven by the improvement of the domestic economic recovery expectation. Technically, with effective support below, the strategy is to go long on dips [18][19]. - Alumina has continuous themes and high capital enthusiasm, with high long - term volatility. After EGA condemned Guinea's revocation of GAC's mining license, the strategy is to go long on dips [22]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Soda Ash Futures - Price: Closed at 1409 yuan on August 12, up 71 yuan or 5.31%, with the highest reaching 1429 yuan [3]. - Driving factors: Macro - policies and cost factors, including relevant policies from the Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission and rising coal prices [3]. - Future trend: Uncertainties exist. High inventory and potential cost reduction may lead to price decline [3]. A - share Index - Market performance: The three major A - share indices had a volatile day, and the Shanghai Composite Index closed with a mid - yang line for 7 consecutive days [6]. - News: The suspension of 24% tariffs between China and the US for 90 days is positive for A - shares [6]. - Operation strategy: Go long on dips [6]. Gold - Influencing factors: Lower - than - expected July non - farm payrolls data and downward revision of May and June data increase the probability of a September interest rate cut in the US, which is positive for gold [10]. - Market condition: The weekly adjustment is sufficient, and it is in a short - term small - range oscillation [10]. Iron Ore - Fundamental support: High molten iron production due to improved steel mill profitability and optimistic market sentiment from black - limit production news [14][15]. - Technical analysis: A significant rebound, and the strategy is to go long on dips [14]. Glass - Supply - demand situation: Slightly improved, but the recovery of terminal deep - processing orders is still weak [19]. - Driving factors: The improvement of the domestic economic recovery expectation [19]. - Technical analysis: With effective support below, the strategy is to go long on dips [18]. Alumina - Market characteristics: Continuous themes and high capital enthusiasm, with high long - term volatility [22]. - Event: EGA condemned Guinea's revocation of GAC's mining license [22]. - Operation strategy: Go long on dips [22].