国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20250813

Report Overview - Report Date: August 13, 2025 [1][8][12][16][19][20] - Report Source: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute - Covered Commodities: Iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Iron ore: Expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2][7] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Market sentiment remains strong, with wide-range fluctuations [2][8] - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: Expected to experience wide-range fluctuations [2][12] - Coke and coking coal: Expected to show a moderately strong upward trend [2][16] - Logs: Expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2][19] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - Fundamental Data: The previous day's closing price was 807.5 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan or 1.38%. Open interest decreased by 41,863 lots to 230,026 lots. Imported ore prices rose, with the price of Carajás fines (65%) increasing by 9 yuan to 888 yuan/ton [5]. - Macro and Industry News: Starting from 12:01 on August 12, 2025, the additional tariff measures on US imports will be adjusted, with the 24% additional tariff rate suspended for 90 days, while the 10% rate will be retained [6]. - Trend Intensity: 0 (neutral) [6] Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - Fundamental Data: The closing prices of RB2510 and HC2510 were 3,258 yuan/ton and 3,484 yuan/ton, up 0.96% and 1.40% respectively. Rebar open interest decreased by 7,237 lots, while hot-rolled coil open interest increased by 6,551 lots. Spot prices in major cities generally rose [8]. - Macro and Industry News: In late July 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises decreased by 5.6% month-on-month. In July, automobile production and sales decreased month-on-month but increased year-on-year. In late July, the daily average production of crude steel decreased by 7.4% month-on-month, while the daily average production of steel increased by 0.5% month-on-month [9][10]. - Trend Intensity: 1 (moderately strong) for both rebar and hot-rolled coil [10] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Fundamental Data: The closing prices of ferrosilicon 2509 and 2510 were 5,820 yuan/ton and 5,812 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan and 8 yuan respectively. The closing prices of silicomanganese 2509 and 2510 were 6,110 yuan/ton and 6,124 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan and 12 yuan respectively. The price of manganese ore increased by 0.3 yuan/ton degree to 40.5 yuan/ton degree [12]. - Macro and Industry News: On August 12, the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions were reported. Some steel mills' ferrosilicon and silicomanganese procurement prices increased [13]. - Trend Intensity: 0 (neutral) for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [15] Coke and Coking Coal - Fundamental Data: The closing prices of JM2509 and J2509 were 1,162.5 yuan/ton and 1,730 yuan/ton, up 5.1% and 2.9% respectively. Open interest decreased for both. Spot prices of coking coal and coke were mostly stable [16]. - Macro and Industry News: Starting from 12:01 on August 12, 2025, the additional tariff measures on US imports will be adjusted, with the 24% additional tariff rate suspended for 90 days, while the 10% rate will be retained [18]. - Trend Intensity: 0 (neutral) for both coke and coking coal [18] Logs - Fundamental Data: The closing prices of the 2509, 2511, and 2601 contracts showed slight fluctuations. Trading volume and open interest also showed different trends. Spot prices in the Shandong and Jiangsu markets were mostly stable [20]. - Macro and Industry News: Starting from 12:01 on August 12, 2025, the additional tariff measures on US imports will be adjusted, with the 24% additional tariff rate suspended for 90 days, while the 10% rate will be retained [22]. - Trend Intensity: 1 (moderately strong) [22]