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冠通期货资讯早间报-20250813
Guan Tong Qi Huo·2025-08-13 01:15

Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively presents the overnight performance of global financial and commodity markets, along with significant macro - economic policies and industry news. It indicates that various markets are influenced by multiple factors such as policy adjustments, supply - demand changes, and economic data fluctuations. Summary by Directory Overnight Market Trends - International precious metal futures closed mixed, with COMEX gold futures down 0.15% at $3399.60 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 0.40% at $37.94 per ounce. The US Treasury Secretary suggested a 50 - basis - point rate cut in September, and market risk - aversion increased [2]. - Oil prices were pressured by increased inventory and weak demand. US crude oil futures fell 1.38% to $63.08 per barrel, and Brent crude futures fell 0.78% to $66.11 per barrel, mainly due to an unexpected increase in US API crude oil inventory [2]. - Most London base metals rose, with LME aluminum, copper, zinc, and lead all increasing. The base metal market may remain volatile in the short term, awaiting more macro - economic and industrial data [2]. - Domestic futures contracts mostly rose, with rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal up over 3%, and fuel oil down over 1% [3]. - International agricultural futures mostly fell, except for US soybeans which rose 2.18%, while US corn and wheat declined [4]. Important News Macroeconomic News - China adjusted the additional tariff measures on US - originated imports, suspending the 24% tariff for 90 days and retaining the 10% tariff [7]. - Guangzhou plans to support the research and launch of power futures at the Guangzhou Futures Exchange [7]. - The government introduced a personal consumer loan fiscal subsidy policy, with a 1 - percentage - point subsidy rate and a 90:10 split between central and provincial finances [7]. - The Fed's Barkin said the uncertainty of the US economic direction is decreasing, but it's unclear whether to focus on inflation or employment [8]. Energy and Chemical Futures - Some second - tier glass companies raised the price of 2.0mm single - layer coated glass, and prices are expected to rise further in late August [11]. - Malaysia's natural rubber production in June increased 5.9% month - on - month but decreased 14.1% year - on - year [11]. - A lithium producer's production line in Chile was shut down, causing the lithium carbonate futures contract to rise [11]. - The domestic refined oil price adjustment was suspended as the adjustment amount per ton was less than 50 yuan [11]. Metal Futures - The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association Lithium Industry Branch issued an initiative to strengthen upstream - downstream cooperation and maintain industry safety [13]. - From January to July 2025, domestic cathode copper production increased by 10.78% year - on - year, with a 14.84% increase in July [14]. Black - Series Futures - The customs clearance volume at Ganqimao Port decreased due to system upgrades, but is expected to recover [17]. - A coking enterprise in Shandong plans to implement production restrictions from August 16 to September 3, affecting about 4.1 tons of coke production [17]. - Steel companies such as Ansteel, Bengang, and Lingsteel raised product prices in September [17]. - Iron ore inventories at major ports in Australia and Brazil and in China showed a slight upward trend [18]. - A coal mine in Luliang resumed production after a 22 - day shutdown [18]. - Yunnan cement companies plan to raise prices by 20 - 40 yuan per ton [20]. Agricultural Futures - Importers holding 2025 wheat, corn, rice, cotton, and sugar import tariff quotas should return unused quotas by September 15 [22]. - China imposed a 75.8% deposit on Canadian rapeseed imports starting August 14 [22]. - The estimated 2024/25 edible vegetable oil import volume decreased by 170,000 tons compared to the previous month [23]. - Malaysia's palm oil inventory may continue to rise in August [23]. - US private exporters sold 315,488 tons of corn to Mexico [23]. - EU 2025/26 soybean and soybean meal imports decreased compared to last year [25]. - The US Department of Agriculture's 2025/2026 soybean and corn production and inventory expectations differed from market expectations [25]. Financial Markets Financial - A - shares continued the slow - bull trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.5%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.53%, and the ChiNext Index up 1.24%. The trading volume reached 1.91 trillion yuan [27]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 0.25%, and the Southbound Capital net - bought HK$9.45 billion [27]. - A - share margin trading balance exceeded 2 trillion yuan for the first time in a decade [29]. - In the first seven months of this year, 53 new stocks were listed in Hong Kong, with a fundraising of about HK$127 billion [29]. - More than 50 A - share listed companies proposed interim dividend plans, with a cash dividend scale exceeding 82 billion yuan [29]. - The A - share market's M&A wave continued to heat up, with over 40 companies disclosing restructuring progress [29]. - Cambrian's stock price hit a record high, but the company refuted rumors [30]. - China Evergrande is approaching delisting [30]. - Tencent Music's Q2 total revenue increased 17.9% year - on - year, and the adjusted net profit increased 33% [31]. Industry - The domestic refined oil price adjustment was suspended [32]. - The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association Lithium Industry Branch issued an initiative to resist "involution - style" competition [32]. - Eight dry - process lithium battery separator companies reached consensus on anti - involution [32]. - 534 drugs passed the preliminary review of the 2025 National Medical Insurance Drug Catalog [33]. - The July China E - commerce Logistics Index reached a new high for the year [34]. - A national commercial factoring management method is under consultation [34]. - Suzhou adjusted the housing provident fund policy [35]. Overseas - US tariff revenue reached a new high in July, but the budget deficit also widened [36]. - US President Trump urged the Fed to cut interest rates and threatened legal action against Fed Chairman Powell [37]. - Trump softened his attitude towards Intel's CEO [37]. - The US Treasury Secretary suggested a 50 - basis - point rate cut in September [37]. - The Reserve Bank of Australia cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points [37]. - UK employment decline in July was lower than expected, complicating the Bank of England's rate - cut decision [38]. - Eurozone and German economic sentiment indices declined in August [39]. International Stock Markets - US stocks rose across the board, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting record highs. The expectation of a Fed rate cut in September strengthened [41]. - European stocks closed mixed, affected by corporate earnings, geopolitical situation, and Fed policy [41]. - The Japanese stock market hit a record high due to optimism about US tariff policy [41]. - Pony.ai's Q2 total revenue increased 75.9% year - on - year [42]. Commodities - International precious metal futures closed mixed, with gold down and silver up [43]. - Oil prices were pressured by inventory increase and weak demand [43]. - OPEC maintained the 2025 global crude oil demand growth forecast and raised the 2026 forecast [45]. - The EIA lowered the 2025 Brent and WTI oil price forecasts [45]. - Most London base metals rose and may remain volatile in the short term [45]. Bonds - The domestic bond market was under pressure, with rising yields of major interest - rate bonds [46]. - Japan's newly issued 10 - year Treasury bonds had no transactions on Tuesday [46]. - US Treasury yields were mixed, with short - term yields falling and long - term yields rising [46]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed lower on Tuesday [48]. - South Korea denied media reports about the 24 - hour won trading implementation time [49]. - The US dollar index fell, and most non - US currencies rose [49]. Upcoming Economic Data and Events - Economic data to be released include Japan's August Reuters Tankan manufacturing/non - manufacturing sentiment index, Germany's July CPI final value, etc. [51] - Events include China's central bank open - market reverse - repo maturity, the Thai central bank's interest - rate decision, and the IEA's monthly crude oil market report [53]