生猪日报：期价震荡调整-20250813

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that the price of live pigs will experience a period of oscillatory adjustment. The supply of live pigs is expected to increase gradually by December, which will limit significant price increases. However, the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs is stabilizing and rebounding, which will support the price to some extent. If the farming sector continues to reduce the weight of pigs or keeps the weight stable, the price may be adjusted weakly in an oscillatory manner, which is slightly beneficial to the November contract. It is recommended to wait and see for now [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Dynamics - On August 12, the registered warehouse receipts for live pigs were 410 lots. - The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline. Attention should be paid to the extent of further weight reduction of live pigs. - The main contract of live pigs (LH2511) reduced its positions by 1,419 lots today, with a position of approximately 60,900 lots. The highest price today was 14,300 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 14,140 yuan/ton, and it closed at 14,230 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase month - by - month from March to December, but the increase is limited. From the perspective of piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will generally increase in an oscillatory manner in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. In terms of demand, consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half. - Historically, the price difference between fat and standard pigs may strengthen in an oscillatory manner. - Market bearish and bullish logics: - Bearish: ① The weight reduction of the farming sector is slow and difficult, and the supply pressure has not been fully released; ② The subsequent slaughter volume is expected to continue to increase; ③ It is not yet the peak consumption season in the third quarter, and the demand's support for pig prices is limited. - Bullish: ① There is still room for an increase in frozen product inventory, which can support pig prices; ② The spot price is resilient, indicating that the supply - demand situation is not as loose as the bears think; ③ Although there will be an increase in subsequent slaughter, the increase is limited, and the third and fourth quarters will gradually enter the peak consumption season for live pigs [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestion - View: Oscillatory adjustment. - Core logic: - Based on sow and piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs may increase month - by - month until December (without considering early or delayed slaughter by the farming sector). With abundant supply, it is difficult for pig prices to rise significantly. - The price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded. Seasonally, this price difference is expected to continue to strengthen, which will also weaken the willingness of individual farmers to reduce weight and support pig prices to a certain extent. - If the farming sector continues to reduce weight or keeps the weight stable in the future, the pig price may be adjusted weakly in an oscillatory manner, which is beneficial to the November contract to a certain extent. Considering that the November contract has a slight premium over the spot price, it is recommended to wait and see for now [4]. 3.4 Market Overview - Live Pig Slaughter Price: The national average price on August 12 was 13.69 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg (- 0.22%) from the previous day. The price in Henan was 13.73 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.04 yuan/kg (0.29%); the price in Sichuan was 13.31 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. - Futures Price: The prices of most futures contracts showed an upward trend, with the 11 - contract rising by 90 yuan/ton (0.64%) to 14,230 yuan/ton. - Main Contract Basis: The basis in Henan was - 500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton (- 11.11%) from the previous day [6].