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生猪:近月限仓,产业交割意愿偏强
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-08-13 01:38

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength is -2, indicating the most bearish outlook [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - In August, the planned slaughter volume of large - scale pig farms increases, small - scale farmers are forced to hold back pigs, demand growth is limited, and market pressure is high. The daily trading volume is poor, and it's difficult to absorb market supply. The September contract is in the pre - delivery month, and the second position limit starts on the tenth trading day. The futures price is still at a large premium to the warehouse receipt cost, and the industry's willingness to deliver is increasing. Pay attention to the premium - narrowing market. The macro sentiment has strong support for the far - end contracts, resulting in a pattern of weak current situation and strong expectations. The spread structure maintains a reverse spread, and attention should be paid to stop - loss and take - profit. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Spot Prices: The Henan spot price is 13,880 yuan/ton, the Sichuan spot price is 13,350 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan/ton), and the Guangdong spot price is 15,290 yuan/ton [1] - Futures Prices: The price of the LH2509 contract is 13,965 yuan/ton (down 5 yuan/ton), and the price of the LH2511 contract is 14,230 yuan/ton (up 90 yuan/ton) [1] 3.2 Market Logic - Supply and Demand: In August, the supply pressure is high due to the increase in the planned slaughter volume of large - scale farms and the forced pig - holding of small - scale farmers, while demand growth is limited. The daily trading volume is poor, and it's difficult to absorb the supply [3] - Contract Features: The September contract is in the pre - delivery month, and the second position limit starts on the tenth trading day. The futures price is at a large premium to the warehouse receipt cost, and the industry's willingness to deliver is increasing [3] - Market Structure: There is a pattern of weak current situation and strong expectations, and the spread structure maintains a reverse spread. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Futures Trading Data - Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the LH2509 contract is 6,369 lots (up 41 lots), and the open interest is 21,908 lots (down 2,631 lots); the trading volume of the LH2511 contract is 26,871 lots (down 3,086 lots), and the open interest is 60,882 lots (down 1,419 lots); the trading volume of the LH2601 contract is 9,819 lots (down 928 lots), and the open interest is 44,835 lots (up 218 lots) [4] - Basis and Spread: The basis of the LH2509 contract is - 95 yuan/ton, the basis of the LH2511 contract is - 195 yuan/ton, the basis of the LH2601 contract is 30 yuan/ton, the spread between the LH2509 and LH2511 contracts is - 350 yuan/ton, and the spread between the LH2511 and LH2601 contracts is - 545 yuan/ton [4]