Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - On August 12, 2025, A-share major indices closed up collectively, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving a seven - day consecutive rise and hitting a new high for the year. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 1881.5 billion yuan, an increase of 54.5 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The policies related to coal production verification have affected supply, with some coal mines shutting down. There are expectations of tightened coking coal supply and steel mill production restrictions [2]. - Due to large net short positions of speculators, there was short - covering in the US sugar market, leading to the upward movement of the Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract [2]. - The 90 - day suspension of the 24% reciprocal tariffs between China and the US boosted market sentiment, causing the upward movement of Shanghai rubber [3]. - The USDA lowered the forecast of US soybean production, leading to a 2.18% increase in CBOT soybeans on August 12. In the domestic market, although there is high supply pressure in the short - term, concerns about future supply shortages support the strong and volatile adjustment of soybean meal prices [3][5]. - The current low - season for pork consumption, high - temperature weather, and expected increase in group - farm pig slaughter are keeping the pig market in a state of loose supply and demand [5]. - On August 12, the palm oil market had many fundamental positive factors, and its price continued to rise [6]. - The 90 - day extension of the Sino - US tariff truce supported copper prices. The supply and demand situation made the copper price show an oscillatory trend [6]. - Positive news in the steel market, including macro - level agreements and industry - level production restriction expectations, drove steel prices to run strongly in the short term [6]. - The supply of iron ore tightened, and the demand was resilient, resulting in an oscillatory trend of iron ore prices [7]. - The asphalt market had low demand but was supported by low inventory, with prices oscillating in the short term [7]. - The log market had a game between strong expectations and weak reality, with weak spot trading, and prices were affected by multiple factors [7][8]. - The cotton inventory decreased, and the price of the Zhengzhou cotton main contract showed certain trends [8]. - The adjustment of mineral resource policies and the tightening of the Guinean bauxite mining policy increased the risk of bauxite supply interruption, and the Shanghai aluminum market was oscillating [9]. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On August 12, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.50% to 3665.92 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.53% to 11351.63 points, the ChiNext Index rose 1.24% to 2409.40 points, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index rose 1.91% to 1069.81 points. The CSI 300 Index closed at 4143.82, a rise of 21.31 [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On August 12, the coke weighted index closed at 1792.3, a rise of 80.7; the coking coal weighted index closed at 1292.3 yuan, a rise of 85.6 [1]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by short - covering in the US sugar market and an increase in spot prices, the Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract moved up on August 12. Brazil's sugar and molasses exports in July 2025 were 3.5937 million tons, a decrease of 4.98% compared to the same period last year [2]. Rubber - The 90 - day suspension of the 24% reciprocal tariffs between China and the US boosted market sentiment. On August 12, Shanghai rubber oscillated upward. In the first half of 2025, US tire imports increased by 6.8% year - on - year, and the estimated total tire shipments in 2025 increased by 0.9% compared to 2024 [3]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on August 12, CBOT soybeans rose 2.18%. The USDA lowered the forecast of US soybean production for the 2025/26 season. Domestically, on August 12, the M2601 main contract closed at 3091 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.62%. Although there is high supply pressure in the short - term, concerns about future supply shortages support the price [3][5]. Live Pigs - On August 12, the live pig futures price oscillated. The LH2511 main contract closed at 14230 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.64%. The current low - season for pork consumption and expected increase in group - farm pig slaughter keep the market in a state of loose supply and demand [5]. Palm Oil - On August 12, the palm oil price continued to rise. The main contract P2509 closed at 9362, a rise of 1.56%. From August 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 23.67% compared to the same period last month [6]. Shanghai Copper - The 90 - day extension of the Sino - US tariff truce supported copper prices. The supply and demand situation made the copper price show an oscillatory trend [6]. Steel - On August 12, rb2510 closed at 3258 yuan/ton, and hc2510 closed at 3484 yuan/ton. Positive news drove steel prices to run strongly in the short term [6]. Iron Ore - On August 12, the iron ore 2509 main contract rose 1.7% to 807.5 yuan. The supply tightened, and the demand was resilient, resulting in an oscillatory trend [7]. Asphalt - On August 12, the asphalt 2510 main contract rose 0.57% to 3506 yuan. The low - demand but low - inventory situation made the price oscillate in the short term [7]. Logs - On August 12, the log 2509 contract had certain price movements. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. The market had a game between strong expectations and weak reality, and prices were affected by multiple factors [7][8]. Cotton - On the night of August 12, the Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 14090 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory decreased by 85 contracts [8]. Alumina and Shanghai Aluminum - On August 12, ao2509 closed at 3308 yuan/ton. Policy adjustments increased the risk of bauxite supply interruption. al2509 closed at 20735 yuan/ton, and the market was oscillating [9].
国新国证期货早报-20250813
Guo Xin Guo Zheng Qi Huo·2025-08-13 01:35