东吴证券晨会纪要-20250813

Macro Strategy - The report indicates that loan demand is expected to decline in July, while social financing growth is projected to remain stable [1][22] - The ECI supply index is at 50.06%, showing a slight decrease, while the demand index is at 49.90%, indicating a contraction in both supply and demand [22] - The report highlights a potential rebound in CPI due to rising commodity prices, which may affect market expectations for interest rate cuts in September [1][23] Industry Analysis - The report discusses historical capacity adjustment cases, emphasizing that government intervention is more effective than non-intervention in addressing capacity imbalances [2][4] - It notes that supply-demand rebalancing requires simultaneous efforts in controlling capacity, restoring credit, and stabilizing employment [2] - The "反内卷" policy is expected to differ from previous supply-side reforms, focusing on market-driven measures rather than administrative interventions [6][7] Company Insights - For Hehuang Pharmaceutical, the net profit forecast for 2025 has been adjusted to $41.4 million due to asset sales, while future projections have been revised downwards due to delays in product launches [11] - For Dazhong Media, the profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted, reflecting the impact of the "碰一碰" business model on profit elasticity and cost optimization [12] - For Di'er Laser, the company reported a 29.2% year-on-year revenue growth in H1 2025, driven by strong performance in the photovoltaic equipment sector [13][14]