五矿期货文字早评-20250813

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall market has different trends and influencing factors in various sectors. In the macro - financial sector, policies continue to support the capital market, but short - term shocks may occur. In the commodity market, the "anti - involution" sentiment has an impact on prices, and prices will gradually return to the fundamentals after the sentiment fades. Different industries have their own supply - demand relationships and price trends, and investors need to make decisions based on specific situations [3][30]. 3. Summary by Categories Macro - Financial Index Futures - News: Three departments issued the "Implementation Plan for the Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy for Personal Consumption Loans", and nine departments issued the "Implementation Plan for the Interest Subsidy Policy for Service Business Entity Loans". Cambrian refuted false information, and the US July CPI data was released [2]. - Basis Ratio: IF, IC, IM, and IH have different basis ratios for different periods. The trading logic is that the policy supports the capital market, and the market may fluctuate in the short - term, but the general direction is to buy on dips [3]. Treasury Bonds - Market: On Tuesday, TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts all declined. Relevant policies on tariff adjustment and interest subsidies were released. The central bank conducted 1146 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 461 billion yuan. - Strategy: The economy maintained resilience in the first half of the year, but the PMI in July was lower than expected. The central bank maintains a supportive attitude towards funds. Interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term, but the bond market may fluctuate weakly in the short - term [4][5]. Precious Metals - Market: The prices of domestic and international gold and silver had different trends. The US 7 - year CPI data was released, which is conducive to the Fed's further easing policy. - Strategy: It is recommended to buy on dips. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 766 - 787 yuan/gram, and that for Shanghai silver is 9075 - 9520 yuan/kilogram [6][8]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Market: Affected by the weakening of the US dollar index, copper prices rose. LME inventory decreased, and domestic warehouse receipts increased. The spot premium in Shanghai increased, and the situation in Guangdong improved. - Price: In the short - term, copper prices may fluctuate strongly. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai copper is 78800 - 80000 yuan/ton, and that for LME copper 3M is 9700 - 9900 US dollars/ton [10]. Aluminum - Market: The commodity atmosphere was strong, and aluminum prices rebounded. The inventory in China increased slightly, and the spot discount narrowed. The LME inventory increased slightly. - Price: The aluminum price has support, but there is also pressure from weak consumption and trade situations. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract is 20700 - 20900 yuan/ton, and that for LME aluminum 3M is 2590 - 2640 US dollars/ton [11]. Zinc - Market: The zinc price fluctuated. Zinc ore is in a loose state, and the domestic social inventory of zinc ingots continues to increase. The overseas registered warehouse receipts continue to decline. - Price: Although the medium - term industry is in an over - supply situation, the short - term price decline is difficult due to the support of low overseas warehouse receipts [12]. Lead - Market: The lead price rose slightly. The port inventory of lead ore increased in August, the production of primary and secondary lead increased slightly, but the downstream consumption pressure was large. - Price: The short - term price decline is difficult due to the possible structural disturbance in the LME market [13]. Nickel - Market: The nickel price fluctuated narrowly. The price of nickel ore was stable, the sentiment in the nickel - iron market improved, but the consumption of refined nickel was still weak. - Operation: It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton, and that for LME nickel 3M is 14500 - 16500 US dollars/ton [14]. Tin - Market: The tin price fluctuated. The supply of tin ore is expected to increase, but the short - term smelting end is still under pressure. The domestic consumption is weak, while the overseas demand is strong. - Price: The short - term supply and demand are weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 250000 - 275000 yuan/ton in China and 31000 - 34000 US dollars/ton in LME [15]. Lithium Carbonate - Market: The price of lithium carbonate rose. The sentiment driven by the shutdown of large domestic mines is stronger than the actual change in fundamentals. - Operation: It is recommended that speculative funds wait and see, and holders of lithium carbonate can choose the entry point according to their own operations. The reference operating range for the 2511 contract of Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 79000 - 87000 yuan/ton [16]. Alumina - Market: The alumina index rose, driven by the strengthening of bauxite control in Shanxi and the political uncertainty in Guinea. The spot price in some areas decreased, and the import window was closed. - Strategy: It is recommended to short on rallies after the short - term bullish sentiment fades. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2509 is 3100 - 3500 yuan/ton [17]. Stainless Steel - Market: The price of the stainless - steel main contract declined slightly. The spot price in some areas changed, and the raw material price increased. The social inventory decreased. - Trend: The short - term market is expected to be optimistic, and the price may fluctuate strongly [18]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market: The AD2511 contract rose slightly. The spot price decreased slightly, and the inventory increased. - Trend: The downstream is in the off - season, and the supply and demand are weak. The upward space of the price is limited [20]. Black Building Materials Steel - Market: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rose. The registered warehouse receipts increased, and the inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil was increasing. The supply and demand of rebar increased, while those of hot - rolled coil decreased. - Outlook: If the demand cannot be effectively repaired, the steel price may decline. It is necessary to pay attention to the demand recovery and cost support [22][23]. Iron Ore - Market: The price of the iron - ore main contract rose. The overseas shipment and arrival volume decreased, the iron - water output decreased slightly, and the port inventory fluctuated slightly. - Analysis: The supply pressure is not significant in the short - term, and the demand has support. It is necessary to pay attention to the terminal demand changes [24]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: The price of glass decreased. The inventory increased, and the demand from the real - estate sector has not improved significantly. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate, and the long - term trend depends on policies and demand [26]. - Soda Ash: The price of soda ash increased. The inventory increased slightly, and the downstream demand was weak. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate, and the long - term price center may rise, but the upward space is limited [27]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Market: The manganese - silicon main contract rose slightly, and the ferrosilicon main contract declined slightly. - Strategy: It is recommended that investment positions wait and see, and hedging positions can participate. The future demand of the black sector may weaken [28][29][31]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial Silicon: The price of industrial silicon declined. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand can provide some support. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [32][33][34]. - Polysilicon: The price of polysilicon declined. The production is expected to increase in August, and the inventory is likely to accumulate. The price is expected to fluctuate widely, and both long and short positions should be cautious [34][35]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - Market: NR and RU rebounded. The long and short sides have different views. The tire - making industry has different operating rates, and the inventory decreased. - Operation: It is recommended to take a neutral approach and conduct short - term operations. Consider the strategy of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [37][38][41]. Crude Oil - Market: WTI and Brent crude oil futures declined, while INE crude oil futures rose. The inventory of refined oil products in Fujeirah Port increased. - Viewpoint: The current oil price is undervalued, and it is a good opportunity for left - hand layout. If the geopolitical premium reappears, the oil price may rise [42]. Methanol - Market: The 09 contract of methanol rose. The domestic start - up rate declined, the enterprise profit was high, and the port inventory increased. - Strategy: The methanol valuation is high, and the downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [43]. Urea - Market: The 09 contract of urea rose. The domestic start - up rate declined, the enterprise profit was low, and the demand was weak. - Strategy: The urea valuation is low, and it is recommended to pay attention to long positions on dips [44][45]. Styrene - Market: The spot and futures prices of styrene rose, and the basis weakened. The cost support exists, the supply increased, and the demand decreased. - Trend: The BZN may be repaired, and the price may rise with the cost after the port inventory is reduced [46]. PVC - Market: The PVC09 contract rose. The cost of calcium carbide decreased, and the ethylene cost increased. The supply was strong, the demand was weak, and the inventory increased. - Strategy: The fundamentals are poor. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the export situation [48]. Ethylene Glycol - Market: The EG09 contract rose. The supply and demand changed slightly, and the port inventory increased. - Outlook: The fundamentals will weaken in the short - term, and the valuation may decline [49][50]. PTA - Market: The PTA09 contract rose. The production and demand increased slightly, and the inventory accumulated. - Strategy: The PTA processing fee space is limited. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX in the peak season [51]. Para - xylene - Market: The PX09 contract rose. The load increased, the downstream PTA had short - term maintenance, and the inventory decreased. - Viewpoint: The valuation has support, and it is recommended to go long on dips following crude oil in the peak season [52]. Polyethylene (PE) - Market: The PE futures price rose. The market expects favorable policies, the cost supports, the inventory is high, and the demand is weak. - Trend: The price will be determined by the game between the cost and supply in the short - term. It is recommended to hold short positions [53][54]. Polypropylene (PP) - Market: The PP futures price declined. The supply may increase, and the demand is weak. - Trend: The price may follow the crude - oil price and fluctuate strongly in July [55]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - Market: The domestic pig price was stable with slight fluctuations. The spot and futures prices deviated. The current inventory release can relieve the supply pressure in the third and fourth quarters. - Strategy: It is recommended to buy on dips for medium - and long - term contracts, and pay attention to the inter - month reverse spread for far - month contracts [57]. Eggs - Market: The national egg price was mostly stable with slight increases in some areas. The supply was sufficient, and the demand was average. - Strategy: The short - term price may fluctuate, and it is recommended to sell on rallies in the medium - term [58]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - Market: The price of US soybeans rose at the low point. The rapeseed meal reversed, and the soybean meal was driven up. The import of Canadian rapeseed was restricted. - Strategy: The soybean market is mixed. It is recommended to buy on dips in the low - cost range and pay attention to relevant factors [59][60]. Oils and Fats - Market: The domestic palm oil continued to rise, and the rapeseed oil rose due to the anti - dumping ruling. The export of Malaysian palm oil increased in August. - Strategy: The fundamentals support the oil price center. The palm oil price may be stable in the short - term and rise in the fourth quarter, but the upward space is limited [61][63]. Sugar - Market: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price rebounded. The export of Brazilian sugar increased in the first week of August. - Outlook: The international and domestic sugar supply is expected to increase, and the Zhengzhou sugar price may continue to decline [64]. Cotton - Market: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price rebounded. The Sino - US tariff suspension continued for 90 days. The downstream consumption was average, and the inventory removal slowed down. - Trend: The short - term price may fluctuate at a high level [65].