宁证期货今日早评-20250813

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The anti - dumping deposit policy on Canadian rapeseeds will reshape the domestic rapeseed meal supply - demand pattern, with supply tightening and price rising. Short - term observation is recommended, and future trade policies should be monitored [2] - The pig price is stable and strong, with short - term range - bound fluctuations. It is recommended not to over - expect in the short - term and to long the LH2511 contract in the medium - to - long - term. Farmers can sell for hedging according to the出栏 rhythm [2] - The short - term bond market is bearish due to rising funds and stock market trends. Treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate downward [4] - Silver is expected to fluctuate upward due to inflation data and increased rate - cut expectations [4] - Gold is affected by conflicting factors, with increased rate - cut expectations being positive and the possible end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict being negative. It is expected to fluctuate downward [4] - Palm oil prices are expected to be high - level range - bound due to good export data and positive news [5] - Iron ore prices are expected to be range - bound, and it is recommended to hold long positions in the 2601 contract [5] - Manganese silicon is expected to follow the sector's fluctuations, with cost support but increasing supply pressure [6] - Rebar prices are expected to be bullish in the short - term due to positive news [7] - Methanol is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and observation is recommended [8] - LLDPE is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and observation or short - selling on rebounds is recommended [9] - Soda ash is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and observation is recommended [10] Group 3: Summaries by Short - Comments Rapeseed Meal - China's Ministry of Commerce imposed a 75.8% deposit on Canadian rapeseed imports starting August 14. The final ruling will affect the deposit refund. The policy will reshape the domestic rapeseed meal supply - demand pattern [2] Live Pigs - On August 12, the pork price at the national agricultural product wholesale market was 20.26 yuan/kg, up 0.3%. The pig price is stable and strong, with short - term range - bound fluctuations [2] Short - term Treasury Bonds - Shibor short - end rates mostly rose. Rising funds and stock market trends are negative for short - term bonds [4] Silver - US inflation data in July was in line with expectations. Increased rate - cut expectations led to a weaker US dollar, and silver is expected to rise [4] Gold - Trump urged the Fed to cut rates and threatened to sue Powell. Increased rate - cut expectations are positive for gold, but the possible end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict is negative [4] Palm Oil - Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 10 increased by 65.25% compared to the previous month. Positive factors are driving the price [5] Iron Ore - The inventory at 47 ports increased by 45.26 tons, and the daily discharge volume increased. Overseas mines are in the off - season, and prices are expected to be range - bound [5] Manganese Silicon - The capacity utilization rate of 187 independent silicon - manganese enterprises increased by 1.2%. Cost support is strong, but supply pressure is increasing [6] Rebar - On August 12, domestic steel prices continued to rise. Positive news is driving the price up in the short - term [7] Methanol - Northwest production enterprise orders decreased, port inventory increased, and production capacity utilization decreased. It is expected to fluctuate [8] Plastic (LLDPE) - LLDPE prices rose, production increased, and inventory rose. It is expected to fluctuate, and short - selling on rebounds is an option [9] Soda Ash - Soda ash prices were weak, production increased, and inventory rose. It is expected to fluctuate [10]