宝城期货资讯早班车-20250813

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global economy is on a stable growth track, with the OPEC raising its 2025 US economic growth forecast from 1.7% to 1.8% and maintaining the 2026 forecast at 2.1% [4]. - The bond market is under pressure, with stock and commodity markets remaining strong. The long - end of the bond market has seen the largest adjustment, but the bank - to - bank money market remains stable and loose [25]. - The A - share market continues its slow - bull pattern, with the three major indices hitting new highs for the year. The semiconductor industry chain has boomed, while some anti - involution sectors have declined [35]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data Quick View - In June 2025, GDP at constant prices grew 5.2% year - on - year, down from 5.4% in the previous quarter but up from 4.7% in the same period last year [1]. - In July 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down from 49.7% in the previous month and 49.4% in the same period last year; the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 50.1%, down from 50.5% in the previous month but up from 50.2% in the same period last year [1]. - In June 2025, social financing scale increment was 41993 billion yuan, compared with 22899 billion yuan in the previous month and 32985 billion yuan in the same period last year [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - Two loan discount policies were released on the 12th to stimulate consumption and boost the economy [2]. - China and the US agreed to continue suspending the implementation of 24% reciprocal tariffs for 90 days starting from August 12 [2]. - The US is likely to see interest rate cuts in September and October, according to CME "FedWatch" data [3]. 3.2.2 Metals - As of August 12, the gold holdings of SPDR Gold Trust remained unchanged from the previous trading day [5]. - The lithium industry branch of the China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association issued an initiative to resist "involution - style" competition [5]. - London's basic metals mostly rose, and the market may remain volatile in the short term [5]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - A coking enterprise in Shandong plans to cut production by 30% from August 16 - 25 and 50% from August 26 - September 3, with an estimated impact on coke output of about 41,000 tons [6]. - Indonesia's annual demand for nickel ore is expected to reach 800 million tons due to the development of the nickel processing industry [6]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - On August 12, US crude oil futures fell due to an unexpected increase in US API crude oil inventories and OPEC +'s production increase [8]. - The US Energy Information Administration adjusted its forecasts for Brent crude oil prices, global oil demand, and US oil production and demand for 2025 and 2026 [8][9]. - OPEC raised its 2026 global crude oil demand growth forecast from 128,000 barrels per day to 138,000 barrels per day [11]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - Malaysia's palm oil exports and production increased in July 2025 [12]. - The prices of white - feather chickens and chicken chicks have fluctuated significantly recently, and farmers are increasing their stocking due to price increases and expected demand growth [12]. - The US Department of Agriculture released data on crop subsidy registration areas and soybean production and inventory expectations for 2025/2026 [13][14]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On August 12, the central bank conducted 114.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 46.1 billion yuan [15]. 3.3.2 Key News - China and the US agreed to adjust tariff policies and suspend relevant measures for 90 days [16]. - Two loan discount policies were issued to support personal consumption and service - industry business entities [16]. - The issuance scale of science - and - technology innovation bonds has exceeded 800 billion yuan in just over three months [18]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The bond market continued to adjust, with most bond yields rising, and the 30 - year Treasury bond yield breaking through 2% [25]. - Some exchange - traded bonds rose or fell significantly, and the convertible bond index closed down [25][26]. - European and US bond yields showed different trends, with European bond yields rising overall and US bond yields showing mixed performance [28]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market Express - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed down 93 basis points at 7.1911 on August 12 [29]. - The US dollar index fell 0.44% in New York trading, and most non - US currencies rose [29]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities expects the annual bond fund scale to exceed 11 trillion yuan [31]. - CICC Fixed Income believes that the risk of a continuous widening of credit spreads in August is relatively small [31]. - Guosen Macroeconomic Fixed Income believes that the bond market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term [31]. 3.3.6 Today's Reminder - On August 13, 196 bonds will be listed, 103 bonds will be issued, 105 bonds will make payments, and 97 bonds will pay principal and interest [33][34]. 3.4 Stock Market Key News - The A - share market continued its slow - bull trend, with the semiconductor industry chain booming and some sectors declining [35]. - The Hong Kong stock market showed mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index rising and the Hang Seng Tech Index falling [35]. - A - share margin financing balance exceeded 2 trillion yuan for the first time in ten years, and many industries received more margin funds [35].