中辉有色观点-20250813
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2025-08-13 01:51
- Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: ★★ [1] - Silver: ★★ [1] - Copper: ★★★ [1] - Zinc: ★ [1] - Lead: ★ [1] - Tin: ★ [1] - Aluminum: ★ [1] - Nickel: ★ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★ [1] - Polysilicon: ★★ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★ [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Long - term gold is expected to benefit from global monetary easing, declining dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring, presenting a long - term bullish trend. Short - term gold may find support around 770, and long - term positions can be considered after stabilization. Silver follows gold's fluctuations, and long - term buying is supported by fundamentals and market trends [1][3][4]. - Copper is expected to strengthen due to lower - than - expected US inflation. It is recommended to hold long positions, with a long - term bullish outlook. The focus range for Shanghai copper is [78000, 81000], and for London copper is [9700, 10000] dollars/ton [1][8]. - Zinc shows a short - term upward trend with the center of gravity rising as Shanghai zinc follows the external market. In the long - term, there is an oversupply situation, and short - selling opportunities should be awaited when the price is high. The focus range for Shanghai zinc is [22200, 23000], and for London zinc is [2800, 2900] dollars/ton [1][11]. - Aluminum prices are expected to have short - term rebounds. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities during the rebound, paying attention to the inventory build - up during the off - season. The main operating range is [20000 - 20900] [1][15]. - Nickel prices are expected to have short - term rebounds. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities during the rebound, paying attention to downstream inventory changes. The main operating range is [121000 - 123500] [1][19]. - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to be strong in the short - term due to the approaching peak demand season. It is recommended to hold long positions, with a price range of [81000 - 86000] [1][23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver Market Review - After the delay of Sino - US tariffs by 90 days and with the ongoing Russia - Ukraine issue and US data supporting significant interest rate cuts, gold and silver prices declined and then consolidated [2]. Basic Logic - US tariff revenue reached a new high, but the government budget deficit still expanded. Inflation data led to an increase in interest rate cut expectations, with the September interest rate cut expectation rising to 95% and the annual interest rate cut expectation rising to 2.48 times. The US government pressured for interest rate cuts. In the long - term, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, declining dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring [3]. Strategy Recommendation - Gold may find support around 770 in the short - term, and long - term positions can be considered after stabilization. Silver's trading range is 9100 - 9300, and long positions can be entered after the price stops falling. Long - term buying is supported by fundamentals and market trends [4]. Copper Market Review - Shanghai copper gapped down overnight and faced resistance during the rebound [7]. Industrial Logic - Copper concentrate supply remains tight, and although the subsequent refined copper production may decrease marginally, the current refined copper production is at a high level. It is currently the off - season for consumption, but demand is expected to pick up with the approaching peak season. LME copper inventory build - up has slowed, and domestic social copper inventory is tight [7]. Strategy Recommendation - Due to the 90 - day extension of Sino - US tariffs, lower - than - expected US inflation, and an increased probability of a September interest rate cut by the Fed, it is recommended to hold long positions. The long - term outlook for copper is bullish. The focus range for Shanghai copper is [78000, 81000], and for London copper is [9700, 10000] dollars/ton [8]. Zinc Market Review - London zinc stopped falling and rebounded, and Shanghai zinc followed the upward trend [10]. Industrial Logic - In 2025, zinc concentrate supply is abundant, and domestic refined zinc production is expected to increase. The demand side is affected by factors such as Vietnam's tariff increase on galvanized steel and the domestic off - season, leading to a decline in the expected start - up rate of galvanized enterprises. Domestic zinc inventory is building up, while overseas London zinc warehouse receipts are being depleted, posing a risk of a soft squeeze [10]. Strategy Recommendation - With the 90 - day extension of Sino - US tariffs, lower - than - expected US inflation, and an increased probability of a September interest rate cut by the Fed, Shanghai zinc will follow the external market in the short - term, with the center of gravity rising. In the long - term, there is an oversupply situation, and short - selling opportunities should be awaited when the price is high. The focus range for Shanghai zinc is [22200, 23000], and for London zinc is [2800, 2900] dollars/ton [11]. Aluminum Market Review - Aluminum prices had a short - term rebound, and alumina had a rebound and then a decline [13]. Industrial Logic - For electrolytic aluminum, the macro - environment is positive. The cost has decreased, inventory is rising, and downstream demand is weak. For alumina, overseas bauxite supply is stable, but there are some disturbances in domestic bauxite. Alumina production capacity has increased, and inventory is accumulating. In the short - term, the supply - demand of alumina is expected to remain loose [14]. Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities during the short - term rebound of Shanghai aluminum, paying attention to the inventory build - up during the off - season. The main operating range is [20000 - 20900] [15]. Nickel Market Review - Nickel prices had a short - term rebound, and stainless steel also showed a rebound [17]. Industrial Logic - Overseas nickel ore prices are weak, and domestic refined nickel production has increased. Stainless steel production cuts have led to some inventory reduction, but overall, there is still an oversupply pressure during the off - season [18]. Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities during the rebound of nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to downstream inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [121000 - 123500] [19]. Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main contract LC2511 opened high and then fell, dropping more than 6000 points from the high [21]. Industrial Logic - Although domestic weekly production has reached a new high, the total inventory has only increased by less than 700 tons, indicating that terminal demand is about to enter the peak season. There is speculation about supply disruptions, and there may be a short - term supply - demand mismatch. From a capital perspective, the 09 contract has a high open interest but a low warehouse receipt volume [22]. Strategy Recommendation - Due to the continued speculation about supply disruptions, it is recommended to hold long positions in the range of [81000 - 86000] [23].