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中辉期货日刊-20250813
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2025-08-13 01:59
  1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cautiously Bearish: Crude oil, PX, PTA, MEG [1][33][37][41] - Cautiously Bullish: LPG, Urea [1][48] - Bearish Rebound: L, PP, PVC, Propylene [1] - Bearish: Methanol, Asphalt [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude Oil: Supply pressure is rising, and the oil price center is moving down. Consider buying put options [1][5]. - LPG: High basis and high positions suggest potential for a rebound. Consider a light - long position [1][11]. - L: Demand is improving marginally. Consider buying on dips [1][16]. - PP: Pay attention to the start of the peak season. Consider buying on dips [1][23]. - PVC: Follow the cost - based range rebound in the short term and wait to go short after the rebound [1][30]. - PX: Supply - demand balance is expected to ease, and inventory is still high. Hold short positions cautiously and buy put options [1][35]. - PTA: Supply pressure is expected to increase, and demand is weak. Hold short positions cautiously, buy put options, and look for low - long opportunities after crude oil's negative factors are exhausted [1][39]. - MEG: Supply - demand is in a tight balance, and cost support is weakening. Take profit on long positions, look for short opportunities, and sell call options [2][43]. - Methanol: Supply - demand is expected to be loose, and port inventory is accumulating. Add short positions on rallies for the 09 contract, sell call options, and look for low - long opportunities for the 01 contract [2][46]. - Urea: Cost support exists, and exports are relatively good. Close short positions for the 09 contract and look for low - long opportunities for the 01 contract [2][50]. - Asphalt: Cost pressure exists, and fundamentals are slightly bearish. Try a light - short position [2]. - Propylene: Spot price is rising slightly, and demand is entering the peak season. Buy on dips [2]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Review: Overnight international oil prices weakened, with WTI down 1.24%, Brent down 0.77%, and SC up 0.02% [4]. - Basic Logic: The support from the peak season is decreasing, and OPEC+ production increase is pressuring prices. There is still room for price compression [5]. - Fundamentals: OPEC's August production increased, and EIA data shows changes in US inventories [6]. - Strategy Recommendation: Buy put options, and focus on the range of [480 - 500] for SC [7]. LPG - Market Review: On August 12, the PG main contract closed at 3813 yuan/ton, up 0.66% [9]. - Basic Logic: Cost is weak, but the basis is high, and positions are rising. There is potential for a rebound [10]. - Strategy Recommendation: Try a light - long position and focus on the range of [3750 - 3850] [11]. L - Market Review: The L2509 contract closed at 7329 yuan/ton [15]. - Industry News: Downstream demand is increasing, and prices are expected to rise slightly [16]. - Basic Logic: Demand is improving marginally, and supply pressure is increasing marginally. Consider buying on dips [16]. - Strategy Recommendation: Buy on dips and focus on the range of [7200 - 7400] [16]. PP - Market Review: The PP2509 contract closed at 7091 yuan/ton [21]. - Industry News: International oil prices are rising, but demand is insufficient. Prices may fluctuate [22]. - Basic Logic: The main contract is shifting, and downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs. Consider buying on dips [23]. - Strategy Recommendation: Buy on dips and focus on the range of [7050 - 7200] [23]. PVC - Market Review: The V2509 contract closed at 5047 yuan/ton [28]. - Industry News: Production is normal, but fundamentals are weak. Prices may be stable [29]. - Basic Logic: Follow the cost - based range rebound in the short term and wait to go short after the rebound [30]. - Strategy Recommendation: Wait to go short after the rebound and focus on the range of [4900 - 5150] [30]. PX - Market Review: On August 8, the PX spot in East China was 7015 yuan/ton, and the PX09 contract closed at 6726 yuan/ton [34]. - Basic Logic: Supply - demand balance is expected to ease, and inventory is still high. Cautiously bearish [35]. - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions cautiously, buy put options, and focus on the range of [6690 - 6780] [36]. PTA - Market Review: On August 8, PTA in East China was 4670 yuan/ton, and the TA09 contract closed at 4684 yuan/ton [38]. - Basic Logic: Supply pressure is expected to increase, and demand is weak. Cautiously bearish [39]. - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions cautiously, buy put options, and look for low - long opportunities after crude oil's negative factors are exhausted. Focus on the range of [4670 - 4720] [40]. MEG - Market Review: On August 8, the ethylene glycol spot in East China was 4456 yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4384 yuan/ton [42]. - Basic Logic: Supply - demand is in a tight balance, and cost support is weakening. Cautiously bearish [43]. - Strategy Recommendation: Take profit on long positions, look for short opportunities, sell call options, and focus on the range of [4400 - 4440] [44]. Methanol - Market Review: On August 8, the methanol spot in East China was 2393 yuan/ton, and the main 09 contract closed at 2383 yuan/ton [45]. - Basic Logic: Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is weakening. Bearish [46]. - Strategy Recommendation: Add short positions on rallies for the 09 contract, sell call options, look for low - long opportunities for the 01 contract, and take partial profit on the MA9 - 1 spread. Focus on the range of [2360 - 2395] [47]. Urea - Market Review: On August 8, the small - particle urea spot in Shandong was 1760 yuan/ton, and the main contract closed at 1728 yuan/ton [49]. - Basic Logic: Supply pressure is increasing, but exports are relatively good. Cost support exists. Cautiously bullish [50]. - Strategy Recommendation: Close short positions for the 09 contract and look for low - long opportunities for the 01 contract. Focus on the range of [1720 - 1750] [51]. Asphalt - Basic Logic: Cost pressure exists, and fundamentals are slightly bearish [2]. - Strategy Recommendation: Try a light - short position and focus on the range of [3450 - 3550] [2]. Propylene - Basic Logic: Spot price is rising slightly, and demand is entering the peak season [2]. - Strategy Recommendation: Buy on dips and focus on the range of [6400 - 6600] [2].