中辉黑色观点-20250813

Report Industry Investment Ratings - For steel products (including rebar and hot-rolled coil), iron ore, coke, coking coal, ferromanganese, and ferrosilicon, the general sentiment is cautiously bullish, with iron ore recommended for short-term long positions [1]. Core Views - Rebar: Supply-side policies continue to disrupt the market, and it may strengthen in the short term due to production cuts during the military parade by Tangshan independent rolling enterprises. The current market still shows off-season characteristics [1][4][5]. - Hot-rolled Coil: The fundamentals are relatively stable, but export profits have declined significantly. Macro expectations provide support, and production restrictions during the military parade in Tangshan may stimulate short-term strength [1][4][5]. - Iron Ore: Driven by steel mills' restocking, the price is oscillating strongly. The fundamentals dominate, and the price is bullish [1][7][8]. - Coke: Spot prices have increased five times, and corporate profits have marginally improved. Supply and demand are generally balanced, and recent coal production restriction news has boosted market sentiment, leading to short-term high-level fluctuations [1][10][11]. - Coking Coal: Domestic production has decreased significantly, and inventory has also declined. Although iron water production has decreased, the absolute level remains high, and raw material demand is stable. Production restriction news has boosted market expectations, resulting in short-term high-level fluctuations [1][13][14]. - Ferromanganese: The supply-demand contradiction is not prominent, and the operating rate has increased in some regions. The tender inquiry price of a landmark steel mill in August has increased, and port ore prices are firm, providing short-term support for alloy prices [1][16][17]. - Ferrosilicon: The fundamentals are weakening, with a significant increase in factory inventory and high delivery inventory. New steel tenders have started, and most mills' tender volume and price have increased. In the short term, the price is driven by market sentiment, but in the medium term, it may face pressure as the fundamentals return to a loose state [1][16][17]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products - Price Information: Rebar and hot-rolled coil futures and spot prices have different degrees of increase or decrease. The basis, spreads, and other indicators also show corresponding changes [2]. - Market Analysis: Rebar shows off-season characteristics, with iron water production slightly decreasing, and production and apparent demand increasing. Hot-rolled coil production and apparent demand have decreased, and inventory has slightly increased, with export profits declining [4]. Iron Ore - Price Information: Iron ore futures prices have increased, and the basis, spreads, and other indicators have changed. Spot prices and indexes have also adjusted [6]. - Market Analysis: Iron water production has decreased, while port and steel mill inventories have increased. Steel mills' restocking has led to a firm price in the short term [8]. Coke - Price Information: Coke futures prices have risen, and the basis has decreased. Spot prices are relatively stable, and production and inventory data show small changes [10]. - Market Analysis: Spot prices have increased five times, and corporate profits have marginally improved. Supply and demand are generally balanced, and production restriction news has boosted market sentiment [11]. Coking Coal - Price Information: Coking coal futures prices have increased, and the basis has decreased. Spot prices are stable, and production and inventory data have changed slightly [13]. - Market Analysis: Domestic production has decreased significantly, and inventory has declined. Iron water production remains at a high level, and raw material demand is stable. Production restriction news has boosted market expectations [14]. Ferromanganese and Ferrosilicon - Price Information: Ferromanganese and ferrosilicon futures prices have different degrees of increase or decrease. Spot prices are relatively stable, and the basis, spreads, and other indicators have changed [16]. - Market Analysis: The supply-demand contradiction of ferromanganese is not prominent, and the operating rate has increased. The tender price of a landmark steel mill has increased. The fundamentals of ferrosilicon are weakening, with increased inventory and new steel tenders starting [17].