国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：能源化工-20250813

Group 1: Report Overview - Report date: August 13, 2025 [1][4] - Report source: Guotai Junan Futures [1] Group 2: Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Group 3: Core Views - The report analyzes various energy and chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, synthetic rubber, asphalt, etc., and provides trend judgments and investment suggestions for each variety [2]. Group 4: Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - PX: Supply - demand pressure increases, with a weakening trend. The main contract is shifting positions, and a 1 - 5 reverse spread is recommended. PXN has short - term support [2][10]. - PTA: The trend is weak. Hold a mid - term position of long MEG and short PTA. Low processing fees may lead to unscheduled production cuts. A 1 - 5 reverse spread is also recommended [2][11]. - MEG: The trend is weakly oscillating. Hold a mid - term position of long MEG and short PTA. The 9 - 1 spread should be maintained in the range of - 50 to 0, and a 1 - 5 reverse spread can be considered [2][12]. Rubber - Rubber: It is expected to oscillate. The trend strength is neutral [2][13]. Synthetic Rubber - Synthetic rubber: The fundamentals provide support, and it operates within the valuation range. Short - term is slightly strong, and mid - term is within the fundamental valuation range [2][20]. Asphalt - Asphalt: It mainly oscillates following crude oil. The trend strength is neutral [2][21]. LLDPE - LLDPE: The trend still faces pressure. Macro and cost factors, along with increasing supply and weak demand, contribute to this situation [2][37]. PP - PP: The short - term requires caution when short - selling. The trend still has pressure, but due to cost uncertainties and policy factors, low - level short - selling should be cautious [2][41]. Caustic Soda - Caustic soda: It will oscillate in the short term. Cost support is strong, and there are expectations for peak - season demand [2][46]. Pulp - Pulp: It is expected to oscillate. International pulp mills' price support and inventory reduction contribute to this trend [2][51]. Glass - Glass: The price of the original sheet is stable. The futures price shows a slight increase, and the spot price in some regions has declined [2][56]. Methanol - Methanol: It will have a narrow - range oscillation. The market is supported by cost and macro factors, but the acceptance of high - price goods by downstream needs attention [2][61]. Urea - Urea: It will oscillate within a range. The short - term market is reluctant to short at the fundamental valuation support level [2][66]. Styrene - Styrene: Compress the profit. The downstream demand is weak, while pure benzene is short - term strong [2][68]. Soda Ash - Soda ash: The spot market has little change. The market is weakly oscillating, and the demand is soft [2][71]. LPG - LPG: The valuation of the futures is low, and attention should be paid to the risk of position reduction [2][75]. Propylene - Propylene: Supply - demand tightens, and the price has certain support [2][76]. PVC - PVC: It will oscillate weakly. The fundamentals have not improved significantly, with high production and inventory problems [2][84]. Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil: It will oscillate weakly with a narrow - range adjustment. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: The night session opened slightly lower, and the high - low sulfur spread in the overseas spot market slightly narrowed [2][88]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - Container Shipping Index (European Line): Hold 10 short positions as appropriate [2][90]. Short - Fiber, Bottle Chip - Short - fiber, Bottle chip: They will have a short - term oscillation. A position of long PF and short PR is recommended [2][32]. Offset Printing Paper - Offset printing paper: It oscillates at a low level with limited upward momentum [2][33]. Pure Benzene - Pure benzene: It is de - stocking continuously and is strong in the short term [2][34].