Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The hype of "anti - involution" is gradually cooling down, and the market will shift its focus to the demand situation in the peak season. The current price increase is mainly driven by the rise in coking coal prices. With the end of the summer heat, the apparent demand is expected to gradually recover, and the total inventory is expected to gradually decline. The futures price may advance the expectation of the demand recovery in the peak season, and the market focus is expected to turn to the peak - season consumption in September [2]. - Currently, the profitability rate of steel mills is acceptable, with the profitable area of sample steel mills exceeding 68%. As the consumption peak season approaches, there is room for the iron - making water output of steel mills to rebound. However, the current iron - making water output is already at a relatively high level, so the room for further increase may be limited even in the peak season. The recent relatively strong performance of the futures price is largely related to the market's expectation of improved downstream demand [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Threaded Steel and Hot - Rolled Coil - Price and Basis Information: The closing price of the threaded steel main contract is 3258 yuan/ton, up 0.25% from the previous day and 0.77% from last week. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract is 3484 yuan/ton, up 0.55% from the previous day and 0.78% from last week. The basis of the threaded steel main contract is 112 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2 yuan and a weekly decrease of 15 yuan. The basis of the hot - rolled coil main contract is 26 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 11 yuan and a weekly increase of 13 yuan [2]. - Production and Supply: The national building materials steel mill's threaded steel output is 221.18 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10.12 tons or 4.79%. The hot - rolled coil output is 314.89 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7.90 tons or 2.45%. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 83.46%, and the average daily iron - making water volume of 247 steel mills is 240.32 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.39 tons or 0.16% [2]. - Inventory and Demand: The social inventory of five major varieties is 962.5 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20.13 tons or 2.14%. The social inventory of threaded steel is 388.48 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.34 tons or 1.13%. The social inventory of hot - rolled coil is 278.75 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10.10 tons or 3.76%. The apparent demand of five major varieties is 845.74 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.29 tons or 0.74% [2]. - Operation Suggestion: Short - term short - selling can be considered at high prices, and profits should be taken in a timely manner [2]. II. Iron Ore - Price and Basis Information: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract is 801 yuan/dry ton, up 0.56% from the previous day and 0.31% from last week. The SGX iron ore continuous - one settlement price is 104.43 US dollars/dry ton, up 0.90% from the previous day and 4.43% from last week. The basis of Mac fine (Qingdao Port) - DCE iron ore main contract is - 24 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 7.5 yuan [4]. - Supply and Demand: The overseas iron ore shipping volume shows that the Australian iron ore shipping volume is 1518.3 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 114.4 tons or 7.01%. The Brazilian iron ore shipping volume is 730.5 tons, a week - on - week increase of 55.0 tons or 8.14%. The 247 steel mills' iron - making water output last week was 240.3 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.4 tons [4]. - Inventory Information: The total port inventory is 13712.27 tons, a week - on - week increase of 54.37 tons or 0.40%. The port trade ore inventory is 9111.9 tons, a week - on - week increase of 69.45 tons or 0.77% [4]. - Operation Suggestion: Try short - selling at high prices for the 01 contract [4]. III. Industry News - The machine - inspection system at Gants Mod Port was upgraded, adjusting the vehicle customs - declaration weight error threshold. On the 11th, the customs clearance at Gants Mod Port was 809 vehicles, a 23.53% decrease from the previous period. It is expected that the number of customs - cleared vehicles at the port will rebound to over 1000 on the 13th [6]. - An individual coking enterprise in Shandong has a production - restriction plan from August 16th to August 25th with a 30% restriction and from August 26th to September 3rd with a 50% restriction, and will resume normal production at 0:00 on September 4th. It is expected to affect about 4.1 tons of coke production in total [6]. - Angang, Bengang, and Lingang have synchronously raised the product prices for September. The prices of hot - rolled, wire rod, and threaded steel have all been raised by 200 yuan/ton, and the prices of pickled, cold - rolled, cold - hardened, galvanized, and non - oriented silicon steel have been raised by 300 yuan/ton [6]. - Satellite data shows that from August 4th to August 10th, 2025, the total inventory of iron ore at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1321.5 tons, a 37.5 - ton increase from the previous period, showing a slight inventory rebound [6]. - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China is 14400.58 tons, an 89.61 - ton increase from last Monday. The inventory increase in this period is mainly concentrated in the East and South China regions [7]. - A coal mine in Lvliang Liulin area resumed production on August 9th after a 22 - day shutdown. The coal mine has a verified production capacity of 175 tons, and the daily output of clean coal after resumption is 0.35 tons [7]. - Yunnan's central and state - owned cement enterprises reported that local cement enterprises will soon announce a price increase of 20 - 40 yuan/ton, and the cement price in some markets may bottom out and rebound [7].
山金期货黑色板块日报-20250813
Shan Jin Qi Huo·2025-08-13 02:02