Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro Finance: Index futures are recommended to buy on dips, and treasury bonds are expected to move sideways [1][6] - Black Building Materials: Steel rebar is advised to wait and see, iron ore and coking coal & coke are expected to move sideways [1][8][9] - Non - ferrous Metals: Copper is for range trading or waiting and seeing, aluminum is recommended to buy on dips after a pullback, nickel is for waiting and seeing or shorting on rallies, tin, gold, and silver are for range trading [1][11][16][18] - Energy Chemicals: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are expected to move sideways, polyolefins are for wide - range sideways movement, and soda ash is for shorting the 09 contract and going long on the 05 contract [1][20][23][26] - Cotton Textile Industry Chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are for sideways adjustment, apples and jujubes are expected to move sideways with an upward bias [1][37][38] - Agricultural and Livestock: Pigs and eggs are recommended to short on rallies, corn is for wide - range sideways movement, soybean meal is for limited upside, and oils are expected to move sideways with an upward bias [1][40][43][45] Core Views - The overall market is affected by various factors such as economic data, policies, and international events. For example, the expectation of interest rate cuts in September has a positive impact on the index, and the supply - demand relationship and cost factors in each industry determine the price trends of different commodities [6][21][41] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - Index Futures: Due to factors like the lower - than - expected US CPI in July, the expectation of a September interest rate cut, and positive policies in China, the index is expected to be strong in the medium - term. Although it may oscillate in the short - term, it is still a good opportunity to go long on pullbacks [6] - Treasury Bonds: The bond market has shown some characteristics of weak assets being hard to rise and easy to fall. Although the current yield has attracted some attention, the market adjustment may not be fully cleared, and attention should be paid to the market disturbance caused by the unstable liabilities of trading institutions [6] Black Building Materials - Steel Rebar: The futures price oscillated upward on Tuesday. The supply - demand is relatively balanced in the short - term, and the price is expected to move sideways. Attention should be paid to the implementation of crude steel production restrictions and the resumption of coking coal production [8] - Iron Ore: The futures price was strong on Tuesday. Although there is an expectation of a decline in hot metal demand, considering the possible macro - positive factors in the fourth quarter, the iron ore futures are expected to move sideways with an upward bias and can be used as a long leg when shorting other black varieties [8] - Coking Coal & Coke: The coking coal market is short - term sideways with an upward bias but the marginal support is weakening. The coke market is stable with an upward bias, but the short - term fluctuation risk is increasing. Attention should be paid to relevant policies and inventory changes [9] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Due to positive economic data in China, the expectation of interest rate cuts, and low inventory, copper prices are supported at high levels. However, it is in the off - season, and the downstream demand is weak, so it is expected to move sideways in the range of 78000 - 79500 yuan/ton [11] - Aluminum: Affected by factors such as the decrease in bauxite supply and the increase in electrolytic aluminum production capacity, the market is expected to move sideways in the short - term. It is recommended to buy on dips in August [13] - Nickel: In the medium - to - long - term, the nickel industry has an oversupply situation. The mine support is weakening, and the price is expected to move sideways. It is recommended to short on rallies, with the main contract reference range of 118000 - 124000 yuan/ton [16] - Tin: The supply - demand gap of tin ore is improving, but it is in the off - season, and the downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with the reference range of the SHFE tin 09 contract being 25.5 - 27.5 million yuan/ton [17] - Gold and Silver: Affected by factors such as the new US tariff, employment data, and the expectation of interest rate cuts, precious metal prices are expected to have support at the bottom. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with the reference range of the SHFE silver 10 contract being 8700 - 9500 and the SHFE gold 10 contract being 770 - 820 [18] Energy Chemicals - PVC: The cost is at a low level, the supply is high, and the demand is weak. The export support may weaken. It is expected to move sideways in the range of 4900 - 5100 for the 09 contract [20][21] - Caustic Soda: The supply is high, and the demand has rigid support but the growth rate is slowing down. The 09 contract is expected to move sideways in the range of 2400 - 2550, and it is recommended to go long on dips for the peak - season contracts [23] - Styrene: The cost - profit situation, supply, and demand are all facing challenges. The macro - environment is relatively warm, and the price is expected to move sideways in the range of 7100 - 7400 [26] - Rubber: Due to the strengthening of raw material price expectations and cost support, and the continuous decline in inventory, the rubber price is expected to be strong in the short - term, with the reference range of 15200 - 15600 [27][28] - Urea: The supply is decreasing, the agricultural demand is scattered, and the demand for compound fertilizers is increasing. The price is expected to be supported at the bottom and restricted at the top, and it is recommended to conduct range trading [31] - Methanol: The supply is increasing slightly, the demand from the methanol - to - olefins industry is stable, and the inventory is decreasing. It is expected to move sideways in the short - term affected by the overall industrial product price fluctuations [32] - Polyolefins: In the traditional off - season, the supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. It is expected to move sideways in the short - term, with the L2509 contract in the range of 7200 - 7500 and the PP2509 contract in the range of 6900 - 7200 [33][34] - Soda Ash: The spot market is weak, the supply is increasing, and it is recommended to short the 09 contract and go long on the 05 contract [36] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: The global cotton supply and demand are expected to increase in the new season. The downstream consumption is light, but the spot is tight. The price is expected to move sideways [37] - Apples: Based on low inventory and growth factors, apples are expected to maintain a high - level sideways movement. Attention should be paid to the quality and price trends of early - maturing apples [38] - Jujubes: With the improvement of the trading atmosphere in the sales area and the increase in good - quality prices, jujubes are expected to rise in the short - term [38] Agricultural and Livestock - Pigs: In the short - term, the supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to bottom out and oscillate. In the medium - term, there may be a phased rebound, but the long - term supply pressure remains. Different contracts have different trading strategies [40][41] - Eggs: The current spot price has a rebound expectation, but the 09 contract basis is at a low level, and the rebound space is limited. Different contracts in the fourth quarter have different trading strategies, and attention should be paid to the elimination situation [42] - Corn: The short - term supply and demand are relatively balanced, and the price is expected to move sideways in the range of 2250 - 2300. Attention should be paid to policies and substitute products [43][44] - Soybean Meal: In the short - term, the supply is abundant, and the price increase is limited. In the long - term, due to cost increases and phased supply - demand contradictions, it is recommended to go long on dips for relevant contracts [45][47] - Oils: Affected by factors such as the MPOB report and the expectation of Indonesia's B50 policy, the price is expected to move sideways with an upward bias. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing the rise and pay attention to the arbitrage strategy of rapeseed oil [48][54]
长江期货市场交易指引-20250813
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-08-13 02:16