股指日报：指数延续上攀，建议日内短多为主-20250813

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the stock index is "Oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recently, the stock index has been rising hesitantly. Although the technical pressure has been increasing, the actual retracement is far less than expected, indicating that the short - term market sentiment remains strong. This week, this strong state is expected to continue, but to break through the current oscillatory pattern, new macro - level support is needed [3] - The rotation of sectors is still significant. Last week, the national defense and military industry concepts soared, while the anti - involution direction faded. In the pre - emptive market without performance realization, investors need to pay attention to the previous high pressure [3] - In August, the positive factors are expected to be limited, including the policy vacuum period after the Politburo meeting and the risk of downward revision of expectations due to the intensive release of corporate semi - annual reports. The general upward trend of the stock index is the market's main theme, but in the short term, the safety cushion for unilateral long positions has shrunk, and there is an expected phased retracement in August. It is recommended to take short - term long positions intraday, and subsequent sharp drops are opportunities to re - enter the market for long positions [3] 3. Summary of Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Stock Market Information - Sino - US issued the "Joint Statement of the Sino - US Stockholm Economic and Trade Talks". The US promised to continue adjusting the measures of imposing tariffs on Chinese goods, and both sides continued to suspend the implementation of 24% reciprocal tariffs for 90 days starting from August 12 [4] - Three departments jointly issued the "Implementation Plan for the Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy for Personal Consumption Loans", clarifying that from September 1, 2025, to August 31, 2026, eligible personal consumption loans can enjoy fiscal interest subsidies [4] 3.2 Stock Index盘面 Review - Market Tracking: In the previous trading day, the A - share market oscillated upwards. Among the four major indices, the Shanghai Composite 50 Index rose 0.61%, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.52%, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.41%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.28%. In terms of sectors, motorcycles (+3.32%) and computer hardware (+2.18%) led the gains, while aerospace and military industry (-1.26%) and chemical fiber industry (-1.18%) lagged. More than 2,000 stocks rose, and 60 stocks hit the daily limit, with a relatively poor profit - making effect [4] - Technical Tracking: The daily and weekly lines maintain an upward trend, while the monthly line remains in an oscillatory market. Among different varieties, the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 have performed strongly in recent days, while the Shanghai Composite 50 and CSI 300 show signs of marginal weakening [4] - Fund Flow: The trading volume of the A - share market slightly increased to 1.9 trillion yuan, indicating a moderately positive trading sentiment [4] 3.3 Core Logic Summary - Futures Operation: The short - term sentiment is strong, but the safety cushion for long positions has shrunk. It is recommended to take short - term long positions intraday or wait and see. For the IH - IM spread, a left - hand layout can be made in advance [3] - Options Operation: The implied volatility of stock index options has flattened, with the at - the - money IV of the CSI 300 in the current month fluctuating between 12 - 13%. During the narrow - range oscillation period, the cost - effectiveness of participating in options is not high. It is recommended to wait and see for the second wave of enhanced volatility [3]