铜冠金源期货商品日报-20250813

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The weakening of the US CPI has boosted the interest - rate cut trading, and the domestic consumer loan interest subsidy has been implemented. In the overseas market, inflation is mild, and the probability of a September interest - rate cut has risen to 95%. In the domestic market, consumption - end incremental policies have been introduced, but the policy strength is moderately weak [2][3]. - The 7 - month CPI data in the US has consolidated the market's expectation of a September interest - rate cut. However, the optimistic global trade sentiment has boosted investors' confidence, and the market risk preference is rising. It is expected that the silver price trend will continue to be stronger than the gold price [4][5]. - The expectation of monetary policy easing has been strengthened, and the copper price has oscillated upwards. The downstream has entered a new replenishment cycle, and the LME inventory accumulation rate has slowed down [6]. - The mild inflation in the US has released an interest - rate cut signal, and the progress of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations has boosted the macro - sentiment. The aluminum price is temporarily oscillating with a positive bias, but the electrolytic aluminum is expected to continue to accumulate inventory [8][9]. - The news of the adjustment of the mineral resource registration authority in Shanxi has led to a sudden upgrade of the expectation of a shortage of domestic mines, and the alumina futures have strongly rebounded. However, the actual impact on the current domestic ore supply is limited [10]. - The mild inflation has consolidated the expectation of an interest - rate cut, and the zinc price is oscillating with a positive bias. The low - inventory and high - concentration of warehouse receipts still support the zinc price [11]. - The market sentiment has slightly improved, and the lead price has oscillated with a positive bias following the non - ferrous metal sector. However, the peak consumption season is less than expected, and there is resistance at the integer - level mark [12][13]. - The expectation of an interest - rate cut has supported the tin price, and the center of the tin price has risen. The tin price is oscillating with a positive bias following the non - ferrous metal sector, and the market shows an external - strong and internal - weak trend [14]. - The industrial silicon is in the process of capacity clearance and is strongly oscillating. The supply has not significantly expanded, and the demand is weak. The social inventory has increased, and the spot market price has slightly declined [15][16]. - The bullish sentiment in the lithium market has cooled, and the lithium price is testing the support of the window. The supply and demand in the fundamentals are both strong, and the lithium price is in a wide - range oscillation [17][18]. - The nickel price is oscillating. The market's expectation of an interest - rate cut in September is rising, and attention should be paid to the resistance at the previous high [19][20]. - The oil price is oscillating. The market is waiting for the results of the Putin - Trump meeting. The fundamentals of the oil market are bearish in the medium - term [21]. - The steel price is oscillating. The spot market transactions are stable, and the inventory pressure is not large due to the expected production restrictions in the north [22][23]. - The iron ore price is oscillating. The port inventory has increased, and the supply pressure has been relieved due to the seasonal decline in shipments from mainstream mines [24]. - The soybean meal and rapeseed meal prices may oscillate with a positive bias. The USDA report is bullish, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed has ignited the sentiment in the rapeseed market [25][26][27]. - The palm oil price may oscillate with a positive bias. The export demand for Malaysian palm oil in early August has increased, and the domestic rapeseed oil has led the rise in the oil market [28][29]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Metal Main Variety Trading Data - Copper: SHFE copper closed at 79020 yuan/ton with no change; LME copper closed at 9840 dollars/ton, up 1.17% [30]. - Aluminum: SHFE aluminum closed at 20735 yuan/ton, up 0.17%; LME aluminum closed at 2623 dollars/ton, up 1.41% [30]. - Alumina: The futures of alumina closed at 3308 yuan/ton, up 4.16% [10][30]. - Zinc: SHFE zinc closed at 22630 yuan/ton, up 0.18%; LME zinc closed at 2848 dollars/ton, up 1.42% [30]. - Lead: SHFE lead closed at 16915 yuan/ton, up 0.18%; LME lead closed at 2016 dollars/ton, up 0.93% [30]. - Nickel: SHFE nickel closed at 122440 yuan/ton, up 0.25%; LME nickel closed at 15360 dollars/ton, up 0.23% [30]. - Tin: SHFE tin closed at 270200 yuan/ton, up 0.68%; LME tin closed at 33770 dollars/ton, up 0.16% [30]. - Precious Metals: COMEX gold closed at 3399.60 dollars/ounce, down 0.15%; COMEX silver closed at 37.94 dollars/ounce, up 0.40% [4][30]. - Steel Products: SHFE rebar closed at 3258 yuan/ton, up 0.25%; SHFE hot - rolled coil closed at 3484 yuan/ton, up 0.55% [30]. - Iron Ore: DCE iron ore closed at 801.0 yuan/ton, up 1.52% [30]. - Coking Coal and Coke: DCE coking coal closed at 1313.0 yuan/ton, up 4.54%; DCE coke closed at 1812.0 yuan/ton, up 2.98% [30]. - Industrial Silicon: GFEX industrial silicon closed at 8840.0 yuan/ton, down 1.78% [30]. - Soybean and Meal: CBOT soybeans closed at 1032.3 yuan/ton, up 2.18%; DCE soybean meal closed at 3091.0 yuan/ton, up 0.62%; CZCE rapeseed meal closed at 2653.0 yuan/ton, down 2.61% [30]. 3.2 Industrial Data Perspective - Copper: The SHFE copper main contract price remained unchanged at 79020 yuan/ton on August 12. The LME copper price increased by 113.5 dollars/ton to 9840 dollars/ton. The SHFE warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 26296, and the LME inventory decreased by 700 tons to 155000 tons [31]. - Nickel: The SHFE nickel main contract price increased by 310 yuan/ton to 122440 yuan/ton on August 12. The LME nickel price increased by 35 dollars/ton to 15360 dollars/ton. The SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 30 to 20693, and the LME inventory increased by 450 tons to 211746 tons [31]. - Zinc: The SHFE zinc main contract price increased by 40 yuan/ton to 22630 yuan/ton on August 12. The LME zinc price increased by 40 dollars/ton to 2848 dollars/ton. The SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 274 to 15768, and the LME inventory decreased by 875 tons to 79550 tons [34]. - Lead: The SHFE lead main contract price increased by 30 yuan/ton to 16915 yuan/ton on August 12. The LME lead price increased by 18.5 dollars/ton to 2016 dollars/ton. The SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 1108 to 5874, and the LME inventory decreased by 3550 tons to 262250 tons [34]. - Aluminum: The SHFE aluminum continuous - three contract price increased by 5 yuan/ton to 20660 yuan/ton on August 12. The LME aluminum price increased by 36.5 dollars/ton to 2622.5 dollars/ton. The SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 378 to 48710, and the LME inventory increased by 1250 tons to 477100 tons [34]. - Alumina: The SHFE alumina main contract price increased by 126 yuan/ton to 3308 yuan/ton on August 12. The national alumina spot average price decreased by 1 yuan/ton to 3273 yuan/ton. The SHFE warehouse inventory increased by 7801 tons to 38182 [34]. - Tin: The SHFE tin main contract price increased by 1820 yuan/ton to 270200 yuan/ton on August 12. The LME tin price increased by 55 dollars/ton to 33770 dollars/ton. The SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 71 to 7397, and the LME inventory increased by 15 tons to 1765 tons [34]. - Precious Metals: The SHFE gold price remained unchanged at 776.04 yuan/gram, and the SHFE silver price remained unchanged at 9187.00 yuan/kilogram. The COMEX gold price remained unchanged at 3399.00 dollars/ounce, and the COMEX silver price remained unchanged at 38.002 dollars/ounce [34]. - Rebar: The rebar main contract price increased by 8 yuan/ton to 3258 yuan/ton on August 12. The Shanghai spot price increased by 10 yuan/ton to 3370 yuan/ton [36]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore main contract price increased by 12.0 yuan/ton to 801.0 yuan/ton on August 12. The Rizhao Port PB powder price increased by 9 yuan/ton to 787 yuan/ton [36]. - Coke and Coking Coal: The coke main contract price increased by 52.5 yuan/ton to 1812.0 yuan/ton on August 12. The coking coal main contract price increased by 57.0 yuan/ton to 1313.0 yuan/ton [36]. - Carbonate Lithium: The carbonate lithium main contract price increased by 0.71 to 8.61 on August 12. The electric - carbon spot price increased by 0.30 to 7.52, and the industrial - carbon spot price increased by 0.30 to 7.31 [36]. - Industrial Silicon: The industrial silicon main contract price decreased by 160.00 yuan/ton to 8840.0 yuan/ton on August 12. The average price of East China oxygen - passing 553 remained unchanged at 9400 yuan/ton [36]. - Soybean and Meal: The CBOT soybean main contract price increased by 22.00 to 1032.25 on August 12. The DCE soybean meal main contract price increased by 19 to 3091, and the CZCE rapeseed meal main contract price decreased by 71 to 2653 [36].