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甲醇日评:内地煤制甲醇供应逐步增加-20250813
Hong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-08-13 02:11

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report [1] 2) Core View of the Report - The fundamental outlook for methanol remains weak. Upstream coal - based profits are still high, coastal MTO profits have slightly declined, and inland downstream profits are poor with room for repair. Methanol valuation is relatively high. The impact of anti - involution policies on methanol production is likely limited, and the supply of inland coal - based methanol is gradually increasing. With high raw material inventories in downstream MTO enterprises, port inventory is likely to continue to accumulate, suppressing the spot price in East China. The expected rebound space for methanol is limited [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Futures and Spot Prices and Their Differences - Methanol Futures Prices: On August 12, 2025, MA01 closed at 2496 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton (0.44%) from the previous day; MA05 closed at 2461 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (0.41%); MA09 closed at 2391 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.08%) [1] - Methanol Spot Prices: On August 12, 2025, prices in Shandong increased by 25 yuan/ton (1.07%) to 2355 yuan/ton, in Sichuan - Chongqing by 10 yuan/ton (0.44%) to 2260 yuan/ton, in Hubei by 15 yuan/ton (0.63%) to 2390 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia by 22.5 yuan/ton (1.07%) to 2125 yuan/ton. Prices in Shaanxi decreased by 2.5 yuan/ton (- 0.12%) to 2142.5 yuan/ton [1] - Basis: The basis of Taicang spot - MA was - 121 yuan/ton on August 12, 2025, down 11 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - Coal Spot Prices: On August 12, 2025, the price of Ordos Q5500 coal increased by 5 yuan/ton (0.99%) to 510 yuan/ton, and the price of Datong Q5500 coal increased by 7.5 yuan/ton (1.33%) to 570 yuan/ton [1] - Industrial Natural Gas Prices: On August 12, 2025, the price in Chongqing decreased by 0.11 yuan/cubic meter (- 3.33%) to 3.19 yuan/cubic meter [1] b) Profit Situation - Methanol Production Profits: On August 12, 2025, the profit of coal - based methanol remained unchanged at 438.9 yuan/ton, and the profit of natural - gas - based methanol increased by 88 yuan/ton (17.60%) to - 412 yuan/ton [1] - Downstream Profits: On August 12, 2025, the profit of Northwest MTO increased by 20 yuan/ton (98.04%) to 40.4 yuan/ton, the profit of East China MTO increased by 16.5 yuan/ton (2.56%) to - 627.07 yuan/ton. The profit of acetic acid decreased by 0.54 yuan/ton (- 0.27%) to 200.39 yuan/ton, and the profit of MTBE decreased by 30 yuan/ton (- 22.08%) to 105.88 yuan/ton [1] c) Information - Domestic Information: The main methanol contract MA2509 fluctuated upwards, opening at 2393 yuan/ton, closing at 2391 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 273,359 lots, and the open interest was 345,050 lots, showing a decrease in volume and open interest [1] - Foreign Information: In the past two days, a 1 - million - ton methanol plant in other regions of the Middle East has resumed normal operation, and some other plants are increasing their loads. The overall daily production in a Middle Eastern country has increased recently [1] d) Trading Strategy - The previous trading day, MA fluctuated within a range and closed at 2384 at night. The expected anti - involution policy will still fluctuate, and the large fluctuations in coking coal will affect the sentiment of coal - chemical industries. Based on the weak fundamentals, the expected rebound space for methanol is limited [1]