西南期货早间评论-20250813

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various futures markets, including bonds, stocks, precious metals, and commodities, providing insights into their market trends and investment strategies. It suggests different approaches for each market based on current economic conditions, policy changes, and supply - demand dynamics [5][9][11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Bonds - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, most bond futures closed down. The 30 - year, 10 - year, and 2 - year main contracts declined by 0.31%, 0.04%, and 0.02% respectively, while the 5 - year main contract remained flat [5]. - Policy and Economic Conditions: The central bank conducted 114.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on August 12, with a net withdrawal of 46.1 billion yuan. The Sino - US trade agreement made substantial progress, and the market risk appetite increased significantly [5]. - Investment Strategy: It is expected that there will be no trending bond futures market, and investors should remain cautious [6][7]. Stocks - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results. The main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM rose by 0.51%, 0.61%, 0.52%, and 0.31% respectively [8][9]. - Policy and Economic Conditions: Three departments jointly issued a personal consumer loan fiscal subsidy policy. Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, asset valuations are low, and the Chinese economy has sufficient resilience. Market sentiment has recently increased significantly [9]. - Investment Strategy: The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and investors may consider going long on stock index futures [9][10]. Precious Metals - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main gold contract closed at 776.04, with a decline of 0.44%, and the night - session closed at 776.28. The main silver contract closed at 9,187, with a decline of 0.25%, and the night - session closed at 9205 [11]. - Policy and Economic Conditions: The global trade and financial environment is complex, and the "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates, providing new upward momentum for gold [11]. - Investment Strategy: The long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and investors may consider going long on gold futures [11][12]. Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rose slightly. The spot price of Tangshan billet was 3120 yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar was 3260 - 3380 yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3470 - 3480 yuan/ton [13]. - Policy and Economic Conditions: Policy changes have become the dominant factor in the market, and the price of finished products follows the price of coking coal. The downward trend of the real estate industry and over - capacity are still the core factors suppressing rebar prices. The expected steel industry stability policy may be a positive factor [13]. - Investment Strategy: Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities on pullbacks and continue to hold previous long positions, while managing their positions carefully [13]. Iron Ore - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures rose significantly. The spot price of PB powder was 788 yuan/ton, and the price of Super Special powder was 662 yuan/ton [15]. - Policy and Economic Conditions: Policy has become the dominant factor, and iron ore prices follow coking coal prices. The high demand for molten iron supports iron ore prices, but the supply has increased, and the medium - term supply - demand pattern may weaken [15]. - Investment Strategy: Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities on pullbacks and continue to hold previous long positions, while managing their positions carefully [15]. Coking Coal and Coke - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rose significantly [17]. - Policy and Economic Conditions: The national energy administration's coal production verification policy has affected supply, causing some mines to shut down and driving up prices [17]. - Investment Strategy: Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities on pullbacks and continue to hold previous long positions, while managing their positions carefully [17]. Ferroalloys - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main manganese - silicon contract closed at 6110 yuan/ton, up 0.16%, and the main silicon - iron contract closed at 5820 yuan/ton, up 0.21% [19]. - Policy and Economic Conditions: The supply of manganese ore has increased slightly, and the inventory has risen. The production of ferroalloys has continued to increase, but demand recovery is weak, and there is still oversupply in the short term [19]. - Investment Strategy: After a decline, investors can consider long positions when the spot market falls into a loss - making range [19][20]. Crude Oil - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated upward but was blocked by the moving average group [21]. - Policy and Economic Conditions: Fund managers reduced their net long positions, and the focus has shifted to the US - Russia talks, with geopolitical risks easing, leading to a decline in crude oil prices [22]. - Investment Strategy: Temporarily observe the main crude oil contract [23]. Fuel Oil - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated downward, showing a weak trend [24]. - Policy and Economic Conditions: The spread of ultra - low - sulfur fuel oil has become negative, indicating an oversupply. The expected increase in Singapore's arbitrage fuel oil and the increase in ARA inventory are negative for prices [25]. - Investment Strategy: Shorten the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil in the main fuel oil contract [26]. Synthetic Rubber - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main synthetic rubber contract rose 0.72%, and the mainstream price in Shandong was raised to 12100 yuan/ton [27]. - Policy and Economic Conditions: Raw material prices have rebounded, but production is still slightly loss - making. The market has declined with overall sentiment, waiting for the market to stabilize [27]. - Investment Strategy: Wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [27][28]. Natural Rubber - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main natural rubber contract rose 0.89%, and the 20 - grade rubber contract rose 0.72%. The Shanghai spot price was raised to around 14700 yuan/ton [29]. - Policy and Economic Conditions: The macro - market sentiment has cooled, and supply disruptions have temporarily eased. The supply is affected by heavy rainfall, and the cost support has strengthened [29]. - Investment Strategy: Pay attention to long - position opportunities after a decline [29][31]. PVC - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main PVC contract rose 0.88%, and the spot price was raised by 30 yuan/ton [32]. - Policy and Economic Conditions: The oversupply situation continues, but the downward space is limited, and it will continue to oscillate at the bottom [32]. - Investment Strategy: The market will oscillate at the bottom [32][35]. Urea - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main urea contract rose 0.52%, and the price in Shandong Linyi was lowered to 1720 yuan/ton [36]. - Policy and Economic Conditions: The short - term fundamentals have not changed much, and the market will oscillate. In the medium term, the outlook is bullish [36]. - Investment Strategy: The market will oscillate in the short term and be treated bullishly in the medium term [36][37]. PX - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the PX2509 main contract rose 0.92%, with a PXN spread of 260 dollars/ton and a PX - MX spread of 120 dollars/ton [38]. - Policy and Economic Conditions: The PX load has slightly increased, but the supply - demand situation has weakened in the short term, and the cost and demand support are insufficient [38]. - Investment Strategy: Consider range - bound operations and pay attention to changes in crude oil costs and macro - policies [38]. PTA - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the PTA2509 main contract rose 0.38%, and the spot price in East China was 4695 yuan/ton [39]. - Policy and Economic Conditions: The supply has not changed much, demand is expected to weaken, and the cost support from crude oil has decreased. However, the processing fee is under pressure, and large producers are increasing production cuts [39]. - Investment Strategy: Consider range - bound participation and pay attention to risk control [39]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main ethylene glycol contract rose 0.64% [40]. - Policy and Economic Conditions: The overall operating load has decreased slightly, and the port inventory has increased slightly. However, overseas plant maintenance has increased, and imports may decrease [40]. - Investment Strategy: Consider range - bound participation and pay attention to changes in port inventory and imports [40]. Short - Fiber - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2510 main contract rose 0.25% [41]. - Policy and Economic Conditions: The supply remains at a relatively high level, demand has improved, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant [41]. - Investment Strategy: The market may oscillate with costs, and investors should pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [41]. Bottle Chips - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the bottle chips 2510 main contract rose 0.44% [42]. - Policy and Economic Conditions: There have been more plant overhauls, and inventory has remained stable. The market is supported, but the main logic lies in the cost side [43]. - Investment Strategy: The market is expected to oscillate with the cost side, and investors should pay attention to risk control [43]. Soda Ash - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main 2601 contract closed at 1409 yuan/ton, up 5.31% [44]. - Policy and Economic Conditions: Supply is expected to increase as previous overhauls are restored, and downstream demand is weak. The market is under pressure, but there is cost support from coking coal [44]. - Investment Strategy: Pay attention to position management due to price fluctuations caused by capital games [44]. Glass - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract closed at 1073 yuan/ton, up 0.47% [45]. - Policy and Economic Conditions: Production lines are stable, inventory is increasing, and downstream demand is weak. The market is expected to be weak in the short term [45]. - Investment Strategy: Go short in the short term, but be aware of capital - related disturbances before contract roll - over [45]. Caustic Soda - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract closed at 2502 yuan/ton, up 0.85% [46]. - Policy and Economic Conditions: Supply has increased as previous overhauls are restored, and inventory is stable. The market is gradually returning to the logic of stable spot prices [46][47]. - Investment Strategy: No specific strategy is provided in the text. Pulp - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract closed at 5264 yuan/ton, up 0.73% [48]. - Policy and Economic Conditions: Supply has decreased slightly, and port inventory is decreasing but still at a high level year - on - year. Downstream demand is weak [49]. - Investment Strategy: The market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [49][50]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main lithium carbonate contract rose 2% to 82520 yuan/ton [51]. - Policy and Economic Conditions: The suspension of mining at Ningde Times' mine has raised concerns about mining rights and costs, but the supply - demand surplus pattern has not changed. Demand has increased as the consumption season approaches [51]. - Investment Strategy: It is difficult to operate unilaterally. Non - participants should operate with a light position and control risks [51]. Copper - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper oscillated upward, breaking through the moving average group. The average price of 1 electrolytic copper was 79160 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [53]. - Policy and Economic Conditions: There is a shortage of copper concentrates, and the expectation of a Fed interest - rate cut supports copper prices [54]. - Investment Strategy: Go long on the main Shanghai copper contract on pullbacks [54][55]. Tin - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin oscillated, closing at 270690 yuan/ton, up 0.1% [56]. - Policy and Economic Conditions: The supply of tin ore is tight, but there are expectations of复产 in the fourth quarter. Consumption is weak, and inventory is decreasing [56]. - Investment Strategy: The market is expected to oscillate [56]. Nickel - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel rose 0.2% to 122870 yuan/ton [57]. - Policy and Economic Conditions: The price of nickel ore has weakened, and the supply of nickel iron is in surplus. Stainless steel is strong on the futures market but weak in the spot market, and consumption is weak [57]. - Investment Strategy: The market is expected to oscillate [57]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main soybean meal contract rose 0.72% to 3091 yuan/ton, and the main soybean oil contract rose 0.90% to 8476 yuan/ton [58]. - Policy and Economic Conditions: The USDA report has reduced the US soybean planting area and production. The supply of soybeans is expected to be loose, and the cost has increased. The demand for soybean meal is expected to increase slightly, while the demand for soybean oil may be suppressed [58][59]. - Investment Strategy: Consider long positions on soybean meal after a pullback and take profit on long positions of soybean oil at high levels [59]. Palm Oil - Market Performance: Malaysian palm oil has risen for three consecutive days [60]. - Policy and Economic Conditions: Malaysian palm oil inventory has increased, but exports have also increased. Indonesia plans to implement a B50 biodiesel policy in 2026. Domestic palm oil inventory is high [60][61]. - Investment Strategy: Consider taking profit on long palm oil positions [61]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Market Performance: Canadian rapeseed prices have fallen, but futures prices have rebounded from the low. The prices of domestic rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil have changed [62]. - Policy and Economic Conditions: China has implemented anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed, and the supply of rapeseed may be tightened. Global rapeseed production and inventory are expected to change [62]. - Investment Strategy: Consider taking profit on long positions of rapeseed products [62][63]. Cotton - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, domestic Zhengzhou cotton oscillated, and overnight, overseas cotton rose 2.4% [64]. - Policy and Economic Conditions: The USDA report has reduced US and global cotton production and inventory estimates. Chinese cotton production is expected to increase, and textile exports are under pressure [64][65]. - Investment Strategy: The market is expected to be strong in the short term [64][65][66]. Sugar - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, domestic Zhengzhou sugar oscillated, and overnight, overseas raw sugar rose 2.5% for three consecutive days [67]. - Policy and Economic Conditions: Brazil's sugar production has increased, and India and Thailand are expected to have good harvests. China's sugar inventory is low, but imports will be high before October [67][68]. - Investment Strategy: It is recommended to observe the market [67][68]. Apples - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, domestic apple futures oscillated at a high level [70]. - Policy and Economic Conditions: The expectation of a production reduction has been disproven, and the national apple production is expected to increase slightly. The price of early - maturing apples has declined [70][71]. - Investment Strategy: Observe the market [70][72]. Pigs -