商品期货早班车-20250813

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, and it is recommended to go long on gold; the long - term trend of industrial silver is downward, and it is advisable to consider short - selling silver on rallies [1][2]. - For electrolytic aluminum, prices are expected to remain volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see; for alumina, beware of callback risks; for zinc, short on rallies; for lead, wait and see; for lithium carbonate, wait and see due to high - volatility prices [2][3]. - For steel, try shorting the RB2510 contract; for iron ore, try shorting the I2601 contract; for coking coal, try shorting the JM2601 contract [4][5]. - For soybeans, the short - term is bullish, and domestic soybeans follow the international cost; for corn, the futures price is expected to be volatile and weak; for sugar, short in the futures market and sell call options; for cotton, buy on dips; for logs, wait and see; for palm oil, it is short - term bullish and medium - term long - biased; for eggs, the price is expected to be volatile; for pigs, the price is expected to be volatile and weak [6][7]. - For LLDPE, short - term is volatile and weak, and go short on far - month contracts on rallies in the long - term; for PVC, wait and see; for PTA, short - term look for positive spread opportunities and go short on processing fees or far - month contracts in the long - term; for rubber, it is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short - term; for glass, wait and see; for PP, short - term is volatile and weak, and go short on far - month contracts on rallies in the long - term; for MEG, wait and see; for crude oil, look for short - selling opportunities near 520 yuan/barrel; for EB, short - term is volatile and weak, and go short on far - month contracts on rallies in the long - term; for soda ash, wait and see [8][9][10][11] 3. Summary by Directory Precious Metals - Market Performance: Precious metals rebounded slightly on Tuesday, and the market's expectation of interest rate cuts further increased [1]. - Fundamentals: US July CPI rose 2.7% year - on - year, lower than expected; core CPI growth reached the highest since February; the probability of a September interest rate cut rose to 95%. Trump considered suing Fed Chairman Powell, and Bisset hinted at a 50 - basis - point rate cut in September. US July tariff revenue reached a record high of $28 billion, a 273% year - on - year increase. The ten - month budget deficit as of July was $1.63 trillion. Domestic gold ETFs had capital outflows. COMEX gold inventory increased by 1 ton to 1201 tons, and Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory remained at 36 tons. London's June gold inventory was 8774 tons. Shanghai Futures Exchange silver inventory remained at 1151 tons, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver inventory decreased by 64 tons to 1304 tons last week. COMEX silver inventory decreased by 11 tons to 15752 tons, and London's June silver inventory increased by 421 tons to 23788 tons. India imported about 200 tons of silver in June. The world's largest silver ETF increased its holdings by 41 tons to 15099 tons [1]. - Trading Strategies: Go long on gold; consider short - selling silver on rallies [2]. Base Metals Electrolytic Aluminum - Market Performance: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum contract increased by 0.24% to 20,685 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was 15 yuan/ton. The LME price was $2607/ton [2]. - Fundamentals: Electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the operating capacity increased slightly. Consumption showed no obvious improvement, and the weekly aluminum product开工 rate was stable [2]. - Trading Strategies: Wait and see as prices are expected to remain volatile [2]. Alumina - Market Performance: The closing price of the alumina contract increased by 3.67% to 3191 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was - 22 yuan/ton. On August 11, 30,000 tons were traded in Western Australia at a price of $365/ton [2]. - Fundamentals: The operating capacity of alumina was stable. Electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [2]. - Trading Strategies: Beware of callback risks as alumina is in a situation of weak reality and strong expectation [2]. Zinc - Market Performance: The closing price of the zinc contract increased by 0.18% to 22,630 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The domestic 0 - 3 month spread was 55 yuan/ton, and overseas 0 - 3 month spread was in a 3.6 structure. The social inventory on August 11 was 11.92 million tons, an increase of 0.6 million tons from August 7 [2]. - Fundamentals: Supply increased significantly (August zinc ingot production was 621,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18,000 tons), and processing fees soared, pushing refinery profits to over 1,500 yuan/ton. The consumption off - season deepened, and the galvanizing/die - casting开工 rate dropped to 56.77%/48.24%. Typhoons and Vietnam's tariffs dragged down exports. The seven - region zinc ingot social inventory increased to 113,200 tons (a weekly increase of 5,900 tons), but the LME inventory dropped below 85,000 tons, providing support [3]. - Trading Strategies: Short on rallies [3]. Lead - Market Performance: The closing price of the lead 2509 contract increased by 0.18% to 16,915 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The domestic 0 - 3 month spread was 25 yuan/ton, and overseas 0 - 3 month spread was 36 dollars/ton. The social inventory on August 11 was 70,000 tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons from August 7 [3]. - Fundamentals: Supply showed regional differentiation. Environmental protection in Anhui suppressed the regenerated lead开工 rate to 41.11% (a weekly decrease of 3.26%), while the primary lead开工 rate was 67.4% (a weekly increase of 3.5%). High - temperature holidays in battery production led to a sharp drop in the five - province开工 rate to 65.25% (a weekly decrease of 6.61%), and battery prices were under pressure. The social inventory decreased to 71,100 tons (a weekly decrease of 1,800 tons), but the inventory digestion in regenerated lead plants was slow, and high waste battery costs (10,100 - 10,250 yuan/ton) suppressed profits [3]. - Trading Strategies: Wait and see, waiting for signals of inventory reduction or regenerated lead production cuts [3]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: The main contract LC2511 closed at 82,520 yuan/ton, an increase of 1620 yuan or 2.0% [3]. - Fundamentals: Last week's production recovered to a new high of 19,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.2%. If the mining end of Ruoxiaowo stops production, it will affect the monthly supply of 8,000 tons of lithium carbonate, and supply - demand shortage is expected from August to October. In terms of demand, the peak production season of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials emerged in August, and the bidding capacity of energy storage systems in July had a remarkable growth rate. Last week, inventory increased due to supply restoration, and the sample inventory was 142,400 tons (an increase of 692 tons). Yesterday, the number of warehouse receipts increased to 20,829 (an increase of 1440) [3]. - Trading Strategies: Wait and see due to high - volatility prices in the short - term [3]. Black Industry Steel - Market Performance: The main RB2510 contract of steel rebounded after rising initially, closing at 3253 yuan/ton, an increase of 6 yuan compared with the previous trading day's night - session closing price [4]. - Fundamentals: The steel inventory in the Gangyin caliber increased by 1.5% to 4.17 million tons week - on - week, and the inventory in Hangzhou increased by 81,000 tons to 687,000 tons. The overall steel supply - demand was balanced, with no significant total - volume contradiction but obvious structural differentiation. The steel futures had a high discount, and the valuation continued to improve [4]. - Trading Strategies: Try shorting the RB2510 contract, with a reference range of 3220 - 3280 yuan/ton [4]. Iron Ore - Market Performance: The main I2601 contract of iron ore fluctuated sideways, closing at 795 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan compared with the previous trading day's night - session closing price [4]. - Fundamentals: The shipment of Australia and Brazil in the Ganglian caliber decreased by 20,000 tons to 25.3 million tons week - on - week, and the arrival decreased by 510,000 tons to 25.72 million tons. The iron ore inventory increased by 1.33 million tons to 1.44 billion tons. The iron ore supply - demand remained moderately strong. The iron - making water production decreased slightly week - on - week but increased by 86,000 tons year - on - year. The fifth round of coke price increase was implemented, and the sixth round was proposed. The steel mill profits narrowed marginally, and future production would be stable. The supply was in line with seasonal rules, with a slight year - on - year decrease. The iron ore supply - demand was moderately strong, and inventory accumulation was expected to be slower than the seasonal rule [4]. - Trading Strategies: Try shorting the I2601 contract, with a reference range of 770 - 810 yuan/ton [4]. Coking Coal - Market Performance: The main JM2601 contract of coking coal rebounded after rising initially, closing at 1307 yuan/ton, an increase of 32 yuan compared with the previous trading day's night - session closing price [5]. - Fundamentals: The iron - making water production decreased by 4,000 tons week - on - week but increased by 86,000 tons year - on - year. The steel mill profits narrowed marginally, and future production would be stable. The fifth round of coke price increase was implemented, and there was no plan for the next increase. The inventory at each link was differentiated. The coking coal inventory and inventory days of steel mills and coking plants were at a relatively low level in the same period of history, while the inventory at mine mouths, ports, etc. continued to be at a record high. The production and mine - mouth inventory decreased month - on - month. The overall supply - demand was still relatively loose, but the fundamentals were improving. The futures were at a premium to the spot, and the forward premium structure remained. The futures valuation was high [5]. - Trading Strategies: Try shorting the JM2601 contract, with a reference range of 1260 - 1330 yuan/ton [5]. Agricultural Products Soybeans - Market Performance: The overnight CBOT soybeans rose due to a positive USDA report [6]. - Fundamentals: In terms of supply, it was loose in the near - term, while the production and inventory of new US soybean crops were revised down in the long - term. In terms of demand, South America was dominant in the short - term, but there were still differences in the export demand of new US soybean crops [6]. - Trading Strategies: The short - term US soybeans are bullish, digesting the positive report; domestic soybeans follow the international cost [6]. Corn - Market Performance: The corn 2509 contract rebounded, while the spot price of corn fell [6]. - Fundamentals: Wheat had a high cost - performance ratio and replaced the feed demand for corn. The weak wheat price suppressed the corn price. The auction of imported grains increased market supply, and the low transaction rate reflected weak market sentiment. The downstream purchasing enthusiasm was not high. The easing of trade situation increased import expectations, and the approaching listing of early - spring corn and the significant decrease in the cost of new - crop corn suppressed the long - term price expectation. The spot price of corn was expected to be weak [6]. - Trading Strategies: The futures price is expected to be volatile and weak [6]. Sugar - Market Performance: The Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract closed at 5640 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.91%. The basis of Guangxi spot - Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract was 300 yuan/ton, and the estimated profit of Brazilian sugar after processing with additional tariffs was 436 yuan/ton [6]. - Fundamentals: The double - week data of Brazil in July showed an increase in production, and the cumulative sugar - making ratio continued to reach a new high of 51.58%, with a double - week sugar - making ratio as high as 53.68%. The increasing production pressure in Brazil was gradually realized, and the raw sugar fluctuated at a low level. The domestic macro - sentiment cooled down, and the coastal sales area quotes dropped significantly this week, breaking below 6000 yuan/ton, indicating that the concentrated release of processed sugar was pressuring the spot. The Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract is expected to be weak and volatile in the future, and the 01 contract will be below 6700 yuan/ton in the long - term [6]. - Trading Strategies: Short in the futures market and sell call options [6]. Cotton - Market Performance: The overnight US cotton futures rose, while the international crude oil price fluctuated weakly [6]. - Fundamentals: Internationally, the August USDA data revised down the US cotton production and ending inventory, supporting the cotton price to stop falling and rebound. Domestically, the Zhengzhou cotton futures continued to rise, and the August BCO data adjustment was positive for the cotton price. As of the end of July, the in - stock industrial inventory of cotton in textile enterprises was 898,400 tons, a decrease of 4600 tons from the previous month [6]. - Trading Strategies: Buy on dips, with a trading strategy of range - bound trading between 13,800 - 14,300 yuan/ton [6]. Logs - Market Performance: The log 09 contract closed at 824.5 yuan/cubic meter, a decrease of 0.96%. As of August 8, the spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, an increase of 10 yuan/cubic meter from the previous week; the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 770 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous week; the spot price of 11.8 - meter spruce logs in Shandong was 1150 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous week; the spot price of 11.8 - meter spruce logs in Jiangsu was 1160 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous week [7]. - Fundamentals: The spot price of logs rose, and the market had expectations for the future log market. In July, it entered the delivery market, and there were varying degrees of length increases in deliveries in different regions. The valuation below 800 yuan/cubic meter was low. With the cooling of macro - sentiment, in the short - term, it would be mainly based on the delivery logic, fluctuating around 800 yuan/cubic meter [7]. - Trading Strategies: Wait and see [7]. Palm Oil - Market Performance: Yesterday, Malaysian palm oil rose, continuing to digest the positive report [7]. - Fundamentals: In terms of supply, the MPOB estimated that Malaysia's palm oil production in July increased by 7% month - on - month, in the seasonal production - increasing cycle. In terms of demand, the export in the production area decreased month - on - month, and the MPOB showed that Malaysia's palm oil export in July increased by 4% month - on - month. There was a short - term supply - strong and demand - weak situation, and inventory continued to accumulate but was lower than market expectations [7]. - Trading Strategies: It is short - term bullish and medium - term long - biased, trading on the expectation of tight annual supply of oils [7]. Eggs - Market Performance: The egg 2509 contract rebounded, and the spot price was stable [7]. - Fundamentals: High temperatures led to a seasonal decline in the egg - laying rate of hens, and downstream food factories were gradually stocking up, with demand possibly increasing seasonally. There were more newly - hatched laying hens, and