美国通胀：“慢热”而非“不热”

Inflation Data - The US July CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, below the expected 2.8% and unchanged from the previous value[1] - Core CPI rose by 3.1% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 3.0% and the previous value of 2.9%[1] - Month-on-month, the seasonally adjusted CPI increased by 0.2%, lower than the previous 0.3%[1] Component Performance - Food prices showed a month-on-month change from 0.3% to 0%, below the 12-month average of 0.2%[2] - Energy prices decreased significantly, with a month-on-month change from 0.9% to -1.1%[2] - Core services increased by 0.4% month-on-month, higher than the 12-month average of 0.3%[2] Market Reactions - Following the CPI announcement, the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones indices rose by 1.1%, 1.4%, and 1.1% respectively[3] - The 10-year US Treasury yield increased by 1 basis point to 4.29%[3] - Market expectations for a September rate cut rose from approximately 88% to around 96%[3] Future Outlook - The average tariff rate in the US increased from 16.6% to 18.6% as of August 7, the highest level since 1933[4] - Inflation is expected to rise by 1.5-1.8 percentage points due to current tariff policies[4] - Market consensus anticipates a significant rise in inflation starting Q3, with Q4 PCE inflation projected at 3.0% and core PCE at 3.2%[4]