碳酸锂日评：矿端扰动持续发酵-20250813

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Profit margins have recovered, leading to an increase in lithium carbonate production. However, disruptions at mining sites in Jiangxi are intensifying. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will experience a moderately strong short - term oscillation. After the downstream shutdowns, as prices rise, other lithium carbonate supplies will enter the market to replenish. This has little impact on the long - term supply - demand pattern. Attention should be paid to the progress at Jiangxi mining sites and market sentiment. In terms of operations, short - term trading is recommended, and caution is advised when chasing high prices (View Score: +1) [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Price and Trading Data - Futures Contracts: On August 12, 2025, the closing price of the near - month contract was 86,140 yuan/ton, up 7,140 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume of lithium carbonate futures contracts was 1,417,040 lots (+1,379,633), and the open interest was 356,998 lots (+39,322). The basis discount narrowed [3] - Spot Prices: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate was 78,000 yuan/ton, up 3,500 yuan from the previous day. The prices of lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica also increased. The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 910 US dollars/ton, up 150 US dollars from the previous day [3] - Price Spreads: The spread between the near - month and the first - consecutive contract was 5,140 yuan/ton, and the spread between the first - consecutive and the second - consecutive contract was 40 yuan/ton. The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price - lithium carbonate active contract closing price) was 1,980 yuan, up 3,360 yuan from the previous day [3] 3.2 Supply and Demand - Supply: Last week, lithium carbonate production increased. The total production of lithium carbonate from smelters and other sources was 143,170 tons, up 692 tons from the previous week [3] - Demand: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased. In August, the production plan of lithium cobalt oxide decreased, while that of lithium carbonate increased. The production of power batteries increased last week. In terms of terminal demand, in July, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales continued, but the sales volume decreased month - on - month, and the 3C product shipments were average. The production plan of energy - storage batteries increased in August [3] 3.3 Inventory - The registered warehouse receipts were 20,829 tons (+1,440), and the social inventory decreased. The inventory of smelters and other sources decreased, while the inventory of downstream enterprises increased [3] 3.4 Market News - The US unadjusted CPI annual rate in July was flat at 2.7% compared to the previous month, and the unadjusted core CPI annual rate rose to a five - month high of 3.1%. After the data was released, traders increased their bets on a Fed rate cut in September [3] - The lithium industry association called for strengthening upstream - downstream collaboration, maintaining industrial security, and jointly creating a fair, just, stable, and orderly market environment to promote the high - quality development of the lithium industry [3]