Group 1: Report Information - The name of the report is "Iron Alloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report", dated August 12, 2025, and the author is Chen Mintao [1] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - Recent iron alloy price trends mainly follow coal price fluctuations. Current good steel mill profits and high hot metal production support iron alloy demand, but long - term real estate market is低迷, and support from home appliances and cars depends on policy stimulus. Manganese ore supply is relatively sufficient, with weak support for ferrosilicon - manganese. Short - term anti - involution trading sentiment has subsided but the market still has expectations for supply - side contraction. The logic of iron alloy prices lies in coking coal prices, with high medium - to - long - term coking coal valuation trends but severe short - term fluctuations. There is a risk of price correction [4] Group 4: Price Forecast and Hedging Price Forecast - The monthly price forecast for ferrosilicon is between 5,300 and 6,000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 25.65% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 69.0%. The monthly price forecast for ferrosilicon - manganese is also between 5,300 and 6,000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.48% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 28.5% [3] Hedging - For inventory management, when finished product inventory is high and there is concern about price decline, shorting ferrosilicon and ferrosilicon - manganese futures (SF2509, SM2509) can lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 15% and recommended entry intervals of 6,200 - 6,250 for SF and 6,400 - 6,500 for SM - For procurement management, when the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, buying ferrosilicon and ferrosilicon - manganese futures (SF2509, SM2509) can lock in procurement costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% and recommended entry intervals of 5,100 - 5,200 for SF and 5,300 - 5,400 for SM [3] Group 5: Market Analysis Bullish Factors - The government's strict control policies on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading in the ferrosilicon - manganese industry [5] - This week, the demand for ferrosilicon in five major steel products was 20,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.01%. The ferrosilicon warehouse receipt inventory was 98,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10.89%, and the total ferrosilicon inventory was 170,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.3% [7] - The demand for ferrosilicon - manganese in five major steel products was 125,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.25%. The ferrosilicon - manganese enterprise inventory was 161,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.52%, the ferrosilicon - manganese warehouse receipt was 380,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.34%, and the total ferrosilicon - manganese inventory was 541,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.1%. The profit in the northern region of ferrosilicon - manganese was - 98.14 yuan/ton (an increase of 70.51), and in the southern region was - 425.86 yuan/ton (an increase of 85.56) [8] Bearish Factors - The weekly operating rate of ferrosilicon production enterprises was 34.32%, a week - on - week increase of 0.56%, and the weekly ferrosilicon output was 109,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.5%. The ferrosilicon enterprise inventory was 71,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.45%. The profit in the Inner Mongolia production area of ferrosilicon was - 49 yuan/ton (a decrease of 134), and in the Ningxia production area was 48 yuan/ton (a decrease of 234) [7][8] - In the long term, the real estate market is sluggish, the black overall sector is declining, and there are doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand, resulting in relatively weak demand for ferrosilicon - manganese. The weekly operating rate of ferrosilicon - manganese production enterprises was 43.43%, a week - on - week increase of 1.25%, and the weekly ferrosilicon - manganese output was 195,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.62% [8] Group 6: Daily Data Ferrosilicon Daily Data - On August 12, 2025, compared with August 11, 2025, the ferrosilicon basis in Ningxia increased by 10, the 01 - 05 spread decreased by 14, the 05 - 09 spread increased by 26, the 09 - 01 spread decreased by 12, and the ferrosilicon warehouse receipt increased by 379. The prices of ferrosilicon spot in most regions remained unchanged, and the prices of some raw materials changed slightly [7] Ferrosilicon - Manganese Daily Data - On August 12, 2025, compared with August 11, 2025, the ferrosilicon - manganese basis in Inner Mongolia decreased by 10, the 01 - 05 spread decreased by 10, the 05 - 09 spread increased by 8, the 09 - 01 spread increased by 2, and the ferrosilicon - manganese warehouse receipt decreased by 187. The prices of ferrosilicon - manganese spot in most regions remained unchanged, and the prices of some raw materials changed slightly [9] Group 7: Seasonal Charts - The report provides seasonal charts for ferrosilicon and ferrosilicon - manganese, including market price, basis, futures spreads, and inventory, which can help analyze historical price and inventory trends [11][20][32]
铁合金产业风险管理日报-20250813
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-08-13 03:02