区域经济专题：2025年上半年各省经济成绩单：中西部地区快速增长，东部地区韧性仍存

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In H1 2025, the regional economy showed the characteristics of "rapid growth in the central and western regions and remaining resilience in the eastern region." GDP growth continued the pattern of "lower in the east and higher in the west," with the average GDP growth rate in the eastern region (5.3%) lagging behind the central (5.5%) and western (5.6%) regions for two consecutive quarters. The central and western regions benefited from industrial transfer and upgrading, with higher industrial added - value growth rates but the feature of "increasing revenue without increasing profit." The eastern region had better industrial enterprise profit performance supported by the integration of high - tech manufacturing and the digital economy. The central and western regions outperformed the eastern region in investment and consumption under policy support, while the eastern region was deeply affected by the decline in real estate development investment and had weak consumption. In the context of intensified Sino - US tariff game, the central and western regions achieved double - digit export growth, while the eastern region's export was greatly affected by Sino - US game [6]. - Looking ahead to the second half of the year, the economic downward pressure increases. For the central and western regions, attention should be paid to the problems of disorderly competition among enterprises and repeated government investment, and reversing the situation of "increasing revenue without increasing profit." For the eastern region, focus on the bottoming - out of the real estate market in the second half of the year and the implementation effects of consumption - promotion and foreign - trade - stabilization policies. For the northeastern region, pay attention to the industrial transformation and upgrading [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Eastern Provinces Show Strong Resilience, Central and Western Provinces Have Faster Growth, and Economic Powerhouses Continue to "Shoulder the Heavy Burden" - In terms of scale, economic powerhouses played a stable "leading" role in H1 2025, with little change in the ranking of provincial GDP scale. The top five provinces in H1 2025 accounted for 40% of the national GDP, and the top ten accounted for 61.6%, basically the same as in 2024. Only Chongqing overtook Liaoning in the ranking. There were also cases of widening and narrowing differences in GDP scale among some provinces. For example, the GDP scale difference between Tianjin and Heilongjiang widened, while that between Guizhou and Shanxi narrowed [7]. - GDP growth continued the "lower in the east and higher in the west" pattern. The central and western provinces were the important engines of national economic growth in H1 2025. Most provincial GDP growth rates were higher than the national average (5.3%). The weighted average GDP growth rate of all provinces was 5.36%. The eastern region's average GDP growth rate was 5.3%, lagging behind the central and western regions for two consecutive quarters. However, the rapid development of high - tech manufacturing in the eastern region provided strong support for its economic growth. The central and western regions had fast economic growth, supported by industrial upgrading, major project construction, and high export growth. The northeastern region's GDP growth rate was 5.2%, lower than the national level, affected by real estate investment and its single - industrial structure [10][11]. - Most provincial GDP actual growth rates in H1 2025 were higher than the expected targets. Among the 31 provinces, 20 had higher growth rates than the targets, and 11 were lower, mainly in the western region. Considering the greater economic growth pressure in the second half of the year, these 11 provinces faced greater pressure to achieve their expected growth targets [11]. 3.2 Central and Western Regions Lead in Industrial Added - Value Growth, and Eastern Region Has Bright Performance in Industrial Enterprise Profits - The eastern region had stable growth in industrial added - value and bright performance in industrial enterprise profits. The industrial added - value of eastern provinces increased by 7.1% in H1 2025, higher than the end of last year and the same period last year. High - tech manufacturing development, digital economy integration, and high R & D investment were the main driving forces. Some provinces like Hainan, Fujian, and Jiangsu had both industrial added - value growth rates above 7% and industrial enterprise profit growth rates over 10%. Shanghai had a relatively low industrial added - value growth rate of 5.1% but a high profit growth rate of 11.8%. Guangdong's industrial added - value only increased by 4%, lower than the national level for 11 consecutive months [13][14]. - The central and western regions had fast industrial added - value growth but poor overall profit performance, with some provinces showing a significant feature of "increasing revenue without increasing profit." The central and western regions' industrial added - value increased by 7.9% and 8.2% respectively in H1 2025, higher than the national level (6.4%), but industrial enterprise profits decreased by 5.1% in the central region and increased by 1.4% in the western region. Some resource - based provinces in the central and western regions had a significant decline in industrial enterprise profits, while Tibet and Guangxi had good performance in both industrial added - value and profit growth. The northeastern region's industrial added - value increased by 5.4%, and industrial enterprise profits decreased by 13.7%, significantly lower than other regions [15]. 3.3 Supported by "Two Major" Project Construction, Central and Western Regions' Fixed - Asset Investment Growth Rates Outperform the National Average, and the Impact of Real Estate Investment Decline on the Eastern Region Continues to Deepen - The central and western regions benefited from national support for "two major" project construction, with higher fixed - asset investment growth rates than the national average in H1 2025. The western region's fixed - asset investment increased by 6.6%, 3.8 percentage points higher than the national level, with 4 out of 5 provinces with investment growth rates over 10% in the western region. The central region's fixed - asset investment increased by 3%, slightly higher than the national level, driven by manufacturing investment in some provinces. The eastern region's fixed - asset investment growth was 1.7%, lower than the national level, dragged down by real estate development investment, which had been declining since September last year. Beijing led the eastern region with a 14.1% growth rate in fixed - asset investment. The northeastern region's fixed - asset investment decreased by 1.3%, mainly due to a 17% decline in real estate development investment. The fixed - asset investment growth rate of debt - resolving provinces was 0.9 percentage points lower than that of non - debt - resolving provinces, but the gap was narrowing [22][23]. 3.4 Central Region Leads in Social Retail Sales Growth Rate, and Eastern Region Has Weak Consumption - The central region's social retail sales (社零) growth rate continued to be higher than other regions, while the eastern region's was significantly lower than the national level. The central region had a bright consumption performance in H1 2025, with a 6.2% growth rate in social retail sales, leading the country, supported by population advantages and the "old - for - new" consumer goods policy. All six central provinces had social retail sales growth rates higher than the national level. The northeastern region's social retail sales increased by 5.4% driven by cultural and tourism economy and ice - snow economy. The western region had large differences in social retail sales growth rates among provinces. The eastern region's social retail sales growth was 4%, lower than the national level, affected by weak wealth effects and income expectations. Hainan was an exception, with an 11.2% growth rate in social retail sales, driven by multiple factors [27][28]. 3.5 Eastern Region's Exports Are Greatly Affected by Tariff Game, and Central and Western Regions Achieve Double - Digit Export Growth - The central and western regions had an export growth rate of over 15% in H1 2025, while the eastern region's export growth rate was significantly lower than the national level. In the context of Sino - US tariff game, weak external demand, and increasing trade disputes, the central and western regions' exports increased by 15.5% and 17.5% respectively, much higher than the national level (7.2%). They benefited from industrial transfer, forming export advantages in "new three items" and taking advantage of the Belt and Road Initiative and transit trade. The northeastern region's exports increased by 8.4%. The eastern region's exports only increased by 1.4%, mainly affected by Sino - US game, with Guangdong being the most affected. Shanghai had a 9.8% export growth, driven by high - tech product exports [31]. - Due to weak domestic demand, most provinces had negative import growth in H1 2025. There were 21 provinces with negative import growth, mainly in the eastern and northeastern regions. The eastern region's imports decreased by 5.3%, while the northeastern region's decreased by 13.5%. Ten provinces in the central and western regions had positive import growth, driven by resource - related products [35].