GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES·2025-08-13 03:32Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The implementation of personal consumption loan interest subsidy policies and service industry operating entity loan interest subsidy policies is expected to stimulate consumption potential and enhance market vitality by reducing financing costs [4] - The report highlights the collaboration of two subsidy policies with other measures in the "Consumption Promotion Special Action Plan," aiming to boost consumption from both demand and supply sides [5] - The fiscal subsidies are projected to lower the financing costs for entities, benefiting retail small and micro loan demand and alleviating credit risks to some extent [5] Summary by Sections Policy Implementation - The Ministry of Finance and other departments have issued specific implementation plans for the subsidy policies, which will be effective from March 16, 2025, to December 31, 2025, for service industry loans, and from September 1, 2025, to August 31, 2026, for personal consumption loans [5] - The subsidy for service industry loans will cover 90% of the interest from central and provincial finances, with a maximum subsidy of 10,000 yuan per entity [5] - For personal consumption loans, the annual subsidy rate is set at 1 percentage point, with a maximum limit of 3,000 yuan for individuals [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that state-owned and joint-stock banks will directly benefit from the policies, enhancing their competitiveness in retail products [5] - It recommends focusing on high-quality regional city commercial banks such as Hangzhou Bank, Chengdu Bank, and others, as well as joint-stock banks with recovery potential and attractive dividend yields like China Merchants Bank and Industrial Bank [5] - The report anticipates a trend of increased capital allocation in the sector, although short-term fluctuations are expected [5] Earnings Forecasts and Valuation Levels - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) and book value per share (BVPS) forecasts for various banks, indicating a generally positive outlook for the sector [6] - Specific banks such as China Merchants Bank and Ping An Bank are highlighted with their respective EPS and valuation metrics, all rated as "Overweight" [6]