贵金属日评：美国7月核心CPI年率高于预期前值，关税收入难阻7月财政预算赤字增加-20250813

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The increase in import tariffs has pushed up commodity prices, leading to a rise in the core CPI annual rate of consumer - end inflation in the US in July. However, due to the possible significant downward revision of the newly - added non - farm payrolls in the US in July or far below expectations, the US economy shows "stagflation" characteristics, leaving room for the Fed to cut interest rates in September, October, and December. Global central banks' continuous gold purchases may limit the downside space of precious metal prices. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions when prices fall [1]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Market Data - Gold: On August 12, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai gold futures was 783.68 yuan/gram, down 3.44 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of spot Shanghai gold T + D was 773.17 yuan/gram, down 2.69 yuan from the previous day. The closing price of COMEX gold futures active contract was 3393.70 dollars/ounce, with no change from the previous day; the price of London gold spot was 3343.30 dollars/ounce, down 36.75 dollars from the previous day [1]. - Silver: On August 12, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai silver futures was 9163 yuan/ten - gram, down 10 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of spot Shanghai silver T + D was 9173 yuan/ten - gram, up 15 yuan from the previous day. The closing price of COMEX silver futures active contract was 37.65 dollars/ounce, with no change from the previous day; the price of London silver spot was 37.76 dollars/ounce, down 0.07 dollars from the previous day [1]. - Other Commodities and Financial Indicators: INE crude oil was 495.20 yuan/barrel, ICE Brent crude oil was 66.71 dollars/barrel, NYMEX crude oil was 64 dollars/barrel. The US 10 - year Treasury nominal yield was 4.22%, the US 10 - year Treasury TIPS yield was 1.91%, and the US 10 - year Treasury break - even inflation rate was 2.38%. The US dollar index was 98.7427 [1]. 3.2 Important Information - Gold: A person named Bessent hinted that the Fed should be open to a 50 - basis - point interest rate cut in September and hoped to take office before the next month's interest - rate meeting. The US CPI in July increased by 2.7% year - on - year, lower than expected, while the core CPI growth rate reached the highest since February. The US tariff revenue in July was 28 billion dollars, a record high, with a year - on - year increase of 273%. The budget deficit in the ten months to July was 1.63 trillion dollars. After deducting calendar differences, the budget deficit in July was 291 billion dollars, a 10% increase from the same period last year [1]. - Macroeconomic Policies of Different Countries: The European Central Bank paused interest - rate cuts in July, keeping the deposit facility rate at 2%. The UK central bank cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.0% in August and may slow down the balance - sheet reduction. The Bank of Japan kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5% in July and will start to reduce the quarterly government bond purchase scale from 400 billion yen to 200 billion yen in April 2026 [1]. 3.3 Trading Strategy Investors are advised to mainly lay out long positions when prices fall. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3200 - 3300 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 3400 - 3500 dollars/ounce; for Shanghai gold, pay attention to the support level around 760 - 770 yuan/gram and the resistance level around 800 - 810 yuan/gram. For London silver, pay attention to the support level around 34 - 36 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 37 - 40 dollars/ounce; for Shanghai silver, pay attention to the support level around 8500 - 8700 yuan/ten - gram and the resistance level around 9100 - 9500 yuan/ten - gram [1].