养殖油脂产业链日度策略报告-20250813

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the documents. 2. Core Views of the Report - Soybean Oil: The price of soybean oil continues to break through and rise. The market is worried about the supply of oilseeds in the fourth quarter due to the tense Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade relations. The market is in a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern. The 01 contract may continue to rise based on the 8400 level. Hold long positions and consider 1 - 5 positive spread operations [3]. - Rapeseed Oil: The procurement and arrival of domestic rapeseed have decreased, and the inventory has declined from the high point but is still at a relatively high level. The preliminary ruling on Canadian rapeseed may affect imports, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction. Hold long positions [3]. - Palm Oil: The July ending inventory of Malaysian palm oil was lower than expected, and the production in early August was poor. The increase in Indonesian export taxes in August may increase Malaysia's export share. Hold long positions [4]. - Soybean Meal and Bean No. 2: The Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade relations are still tense, and there is a concern about the supply of oilseeds in the fourth quarter. Hold long positions for the 01 contract of soybean meal, and the 09 contract of bean No. 2 is expected to fluctuate and adjust [3][4]. - Rapeseed Meal: The potential reduction in rapeseed imports and the low spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal. There is an expectation of inventory reduction, and long positions can be held [3][5]. - Corn and Corn Starch: The external market is under pressure from the South American harvest and the expected increase in US planting area. The domestic market is affected by imported corn and the news of tightening imports. Suggest holding short positions cautiously [6]. - Bean No. 1: New soybeans in Hubei and other places are gradually on the market, and the market auction is not good. Try short positions lightly [6]. - Peanuts: The inventory in the producing areas is low, and the import is affected. The increase in planting area and the potential impact of drought in some areas. Consider reducing short positions for the 10 contract and shorting on rebounds for the 11 and 01 contracts [7]. - Pigs: The feed price rebounds, and the expectation of capacity reduction is strengthened. Hold long positions [8]. - Eggs: The egg price is at the end of the seasonal off - season, and the cost collapse risk is partially released. It is recommended to wait and see for the 09 contract, and aggressive investors can buy the 10 contract at low positions [8]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 First Part: Plate Strategy Recommendation 3.1.1 Market Judgment - Oilseeds: Bean No. 1 is expected to fluctuate, and short positions can be tried lightly; Bean No. 2 is expected to fluctuate and adjust, and wait and see; Peanuts are expected to fluctuate weakly, and reduce short positions; Soybean oil is expected to fluctuate strongly, and hold long positions; Rapeseed oil is expected to rise, and hold long positions; Palm oil is expected to fluctuate strongly, and hold long positions [11]. - Protein: Soybean meal is expected to rise, and try long positions lightly; Rapeseed meal is expected to fluctuate strongly, and go long at low positions [11]. - Energy and By - products: Corn and corn starch are expected to fluctuate and sort out, and hold short positions cautiously [11]. - Aquaculture: Pigs are expected to rebound, and hold long positions; Eggs are expected to find the bottom, and wait and see [11]. 3.1.2 Commodity Arbitrage - Inter - period Arbitrage: For most varieties, it is recommended to wait and see. For soybean meal 11 - 1, conduct positive spread operations; for pigs 9 - 1 and eggs 9 - 1, conduct positive spread operations at low positions [12][13]. - Inter - variety Arbitrage: For some varieties, conduct short - biased or long - biased operations, and for others, wait and see [13]. 3.1.3 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategy Provide the spot price, price change, and basis and its change of various varieties [14]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 3.2.1 Oilseeds and Oils - Daily Data: Provide the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil, including arrival premium, futures price, CNF price, and arrival duty - paid price [16][17]. - Weekly Data: Provide the inventory, startup rate, etc. of soybeans, rapeseeds, palm oil, peanuts, etc. [18]. 3.2.2 Feed - Daily Data: Provide the import cost data of corn from different countries and months [18]. - Weekly Data: Provide the consumption, inventory, startup rate, and inventory of corn and corn starch in deep - processing enterprises [19]. 3.2.3 Aquaculture - Provide the daily and weekly data of pigs and eggs, including price, inventory, production rate, etc. [20][21][22][23][24] 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Chart - Aquaculture End (Pigs, Eggs): Provide charts of the closing price of the main contracts, spot price, etc. of pigs and eggs [26][28][29][32] - Oilseeds and Oils: Provide charts of production, inventory, profit, etc. of palm oil, soybean oil, and peanuts [36][46][50] - Feed End: Provide charts of inventory, consumption, profit, etc. of corn, corn starch, rapeseed, and soybean meal [54][56][58][65] 3.4 Fourth Part: Option Situation of Soybean Meal, Feed, Aquaculture, and Oils Provide charts of historical volatility, trading volume, and open interest of options of various varieties [71][73] 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Aquaculture, and Oils Provide charts of the warehouse receipt quantity of various varieties [75][77]