方正中期期货有色金属日度策略-20250813

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The non - ferrous metals sector continues to experience oscillations. With the easing of geopolitical tensions, there is a rise in optimistic sentiment, and domestic industrial products, especially those priced in the domestic market, are showing a warming trend, benefiting related non - ferrous metal varieties. The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September is increasing, and the US dollar index is falling. Each metal variety has its own supply - demand characteristics and price trends. For example, the copper market is gradually entering a pattern of strong supply and demand, while the zinc market shows a situation of increasing supply and weak demand. [3][11] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operation Logic and Investment Suggestions - Macro Logic: The non - ferrous metals sector oscillates. The implementation of the anti - involution policy in multiple domestic industries has affected the non - ferrous metals sector. The suspension of a 24% tariff between China and the US for 90 days, along with signs of easing geopolitical situations, has led to a partial recovery of non - ferrous metals. The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut has increased, and the US dollar is relatively weak. [11] - Investment Suggestions for Each Metal: - Copper: Supply is abundant in the short term, but demand is gradually picking up. It is advisable to gradually buy at low prices. The short - term upper pressure range is 80,000 - 82,000 yuan/ton, and the lower support range is 77,000 - 78,000 yuan/ton. [3] - Zinc: In the short term, it may fluctuate and rise, but in the medium term, it is advisable to short at high prices. The upper pressure is around 22,800 - 23,000 yuan, and the lower support is around 21,800 - 22,000 yuan. [4] - Aluminum Industry Chain: It is recommended to wait and see. For the 09 contract, the upper pressure range is 21,000 - 21,200 yuan, and the lower support range is 20,000 - 20,200 yuan. [5] - Tin: It is advisable to conduct short - term high - selling and low - buying operations. The upper pressure range is 270,000 - 290,000 yuan, and the lower support range is 250,000 - 255,000 yuan. [6] - Lead: It is advisable to hold long positions at low prices in the short term. The lower support is around 16,500 - 16,600 yuan, and the upper pressure is around 17,200 - 17,400 yuan. [7] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: Nickel can be shorted on rebounds in the medium term, while stainless steel shows a short - term upward trend. For nickel, the upper pressure is 123,000 - 125,000 yuan, and the lower support is 115,000 - 116,000 yuan. For stainless steel, the support is around 12,800 - 13,000 yuan, and the upper pressure is around 13,500 - 13,600 yuan. [8] 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - The closing prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals are presented. For example, copper closed at 79,020 yuan with a 0.00% change, zinc at 22,630 yuan with a 0.18% change, etc. [15] 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - The net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position differences, and changes in net long and short positions of various non - ferrous metal contracts are provided, along with the influencing factors such as changes in the positions of major players. [17] 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - The spot prices and price changes of non - ferrous metals such as copper, zinc, aluminum, and alumina are given. For example, the Yangtze River Non - ferrous copper spot price is 79,200 yuan/ton with a - 0.01% change. [18][20] 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - For each metal, relevant industry chain charts are provided, including inventory changes, processing fee changes, and price trends, which help to understand the supply - demand relationships and cost factors in the industry chain. [22][26][29] 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - Various arbitrage - related charts for non - ferrous metals are presented, such as the ratio changes between domestic and foreign markets, basis trends, and price differences between different contracts, which can be used for arbitrage operations. [60][61][63] 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options - Charts related to the historical volatility, implied volatility, trading volume, and open interest of options for non - ferrous metals such as copper, zinc, and aluminum are provided, which can assist in option trading strategies. [77][79][82]