债市策略思考：如何理解个人消费贷款贴息政策？

Core Insights - The probability of interest rate cuts within the year has decreased, with demand-side policies potentially sustaining inflation expectations, leading to continued pressure on the bond market and further postponement of the buying window [1][3][28] - The personal consumption loan interest subsidy policy is expected to compress the central bank's total monetary policy easing space, with the next potential rate cut window likely pushed to the first quarter of 2026 [3][12][28] - Inflation expectations have been reinforced under the "anti-involution" policy, with demand-side policies providing better support for price increase expectations, leading to a resurgence in "anti-involution trading" [2][20][28] Summary by Sections Understanding Personal Consumption Loan Interest Subsidy Policy - The policy covers personal consumption loans under 50,000 yuan and key areas such as automotive, healthcare, and education, with a maximum subsidy of 3,000 yuan for eligible borrowers [10][11] - The subsidy is equivalent to a targeted interest rate cut of 0.5-1 percentage points, reducing the effective financing cost for consumers [11][12] Impact on Bond Market - The bond market's buying window is likely to be further delayed due to the subsidy policy, which compresses the central bank's monetary policy easing space [3][28] - The anticipated inflation expectations and strong performance in the equity market may continue to exert pressure on the bond market [28] Inflation Expectations and Market Dynamics - The "anti-involution" policy has led to a self-reinforcing cycle of price signals and inflation expectations, with significant price increases in sectors like coal and steel [2][20] - The market has begun to bet on a re-inflation scenario, with indicators showing a shift in investor sentiment towards inflationary expectations [20][27]