海外市场点评：7月美国CPI：9月降息稳了吗？

Inflation Data Overview - In July, the U.S. CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, matching the previous value and slightly below the expected 2.8%[3] - Month-on-month, the CPI rose by 0.2%, consistent with expectations but down from 0.3% in June[3] - Core CPI rose to 3.1% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 3% and up from 2.9% in June[3] Market Reactions and Expectations - The underwhelming CPI data has led the market to anticipate a rate cut in September, with a positive response in both stock and bond markets[4] - Despite favorable conditions for a rate cut, inflation expectations remain a concern, and the Federal Reserve's stance is expected to be cautious[5] Key Influencing Factors - Energy prices fell significantly, with a month-on-month decrease of 1.1%, down from a 0.9% increase in June, while food prices remained stable at 0%[5] - Core CPI's increase was driven by rising costs in services, particularly in transportation, which saw a month-on-month increase of 0.8%[7] Automotive Market Insights - The automotive sector showed strong performance, with new and used car prices rising significantly, driven by consumer demand ahead of the expiration of tax credits for electric vehicles[6] - Approximately 130,000 new electric vehicles were sold in July, marking a 26.4% month-on-month increase, the second-highest monthly sales on record[7] Service Sector Trends - Housing costs are stabilizing, but other core services are experiencing robust price increases, particularly in transportation services, which surged by 4% month-on-month[7] - The super core CPI, excluding housing, reached its highest level of the year, indicating strong consumer demand in various service sectors[7] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include significant changes in U.S. trade policies and unexpected tariff increases that could lead to a global economic slowdown[8]