国贸商品指数日报-20250813

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core View - On Tuesday (August 12), most domestic commodity futures closed higher, with industrial products mostly rising and agricultural products showing mixed performance [1]. Group 3: Summary by Category Black Series - Most black series commodities rose. After the Tangshan production restriction news was confirmed over the weekend and the coking coal and coke futures prices continued to rise, the futures prices of rebar and hot-rolled coils rebounded by about 1%. The total inventory of the five major steel products increased by 23470 tons to 1.37536 million tons last week, reaching a more than two-month high. The steel market is currently in a tight balance between "policy expectation support" and "off-season demand suppression", and it is expected to remain in a high-level oscillation. Attention should be paid to the inflection point of hot metal production and the implementation of production restriction policies [1]. Basic Metals - Most basic metals rose. For copper, the expectation of a Fed rate cut has increased recently, and the bullish sentiment in the industrial product market is strong. The supply and demand situation in the copper market has not changed significantly, and the Shanghai copper futures are trading strongly. For lithium carbonate, it opened significantly higher, then oscillated lower, and the gain narrowed at the end of the session. The suspension of production at the Xiakeng Mine in Jiangxi has led to a substantial reduction in supply, but the increasing production of spodumene lithium extraction will offset some of the supply reduction. With the increase in downstream production scheduling in August, inventory is expected to decline, and the fundamental situation has improved marginally, driving lithium carbonate prices to oscillate strongly [1]. Energy Products - Energy products rebounded after a decline. International oil prices finally showed signs of stabilization and rebound overnight after several days of decline, which improved the sentiment in the domestic crude oil market. In the short term, OPEC+ plans to increase production in September, and there are concerns about the impact of tariff policies on demand, so oil prices are expected to oscillate weakly. Geopolitical risks may lead to a temporary shortage of supply and support oil prices to rise periodically. In the long term, due to OPEC+'s production increase strategy, the demand for oil will weaken after the peak season, and inventory will accumulate due to poor refinery profits. In addition, the increasing substitution rate of the new energy industry will continue to put pressure on oil prices [1]. Agricultural Products - Most agricultural products rose. The Ministry of Commerce announced the preliminary ruling on the anti-dumping investigation of imported rapeseed from Canada, and decided to impose a 75.8% deposit ratio on all Canadian companies. The far-month contracts of rapeseed products rose significantly, while the main September contract of rapeseed meal closed lower under the pressure of a large increase in warehouse receipts. In the short term, affected by China-Canada trade policies, rapeseed products are expected to continue to oscillate strongly. Palm oil prices continued to be strong due to lower-than-expected production and inventory in Malaysia and the impact of Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy. The market sentiment is bullish in the short term, and prices are expected to continue to oscillate strongly. Attention should be paid to subsequent biodiesel policy changes and crude oil price trends [1].