美国7月CPI数据点评：通胀温和，无碍降息

Group 1: Inflation Data Overview - In July 2025, the US CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, matching the previous value and below the market expectation of 2.8%[6] - Core CPI rose by 3.1% year-on-year, up from 2.9% previously and slightly above the expected 3.0%[6] - The month-on-month CPI growth rate decreased to 0.2%, while core CPI increased to 0.3%[9] Group 2: Inflation Components - Food CPI growth rate was flat at 0.0% month-on-month, with household food prices declining and non-household food price increases narrowing[9] - Energy CPI month-on-month growth significantly slowed to -1.1%, with both energy goods and services prices turning negative[9] - Core goods inflation pressure remains limited, with core goods CPI month-on-month growth steady at 0.2%[9] Group 3: Housing and Services Inflation - Housing inflation remained stable, contributing 0.07 percentage points to the overall CPI increase, with rent and equivalent rent showing slight increases[9] - Core services CPI month-on-month growth rose to 0.4%, driven by significant increases in transportation and healthcare services[9] - Overall, core services inflation shows upward pressure, particularly in healthcare due to potential tariff impacts[9] Group 4: Interest Rate Outlook - The market's expectation for a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve strengthened, with the probability rising from 85.9% to 92.2% following the CPI data release[9] - Short-term outlook suggests a high likelihood of a rate cut in September, with December also being a probable event due to ongoing economic conditions[9] - The "Great American Rescue Plan" may support the economy but will not alter the trend towards a soft landing, necessitating rate cuts for effective policy implementation[9]