Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical conflicts combined with tariff fluctuations make trading difficult, so it is recommended to participate with light positions or wait and see [5]. - The spot freight rate is continuously declining, and the market is pessimistic about future prices. The market is oscillating weakly, and it is not recommended to increase positions. Stop - loss should be set [2]. Summary by Related Content Freight Index - On August 11, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2235.48 points, down 2.7% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1082.14 points, down 4.2% from the previous period [3]. - On August 8, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1053.86 points, down 3.11% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1257.71 points, down 8.37% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1042.91 points, down 6.42% from the previous period [3]. - On August 8, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) composite index was 1489.68 points, down 61.06 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 1961 USD/TEU, down 4.39% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US - West route was 1823 USD/FEU, down 9.80% from the previous period [3]. - On August 8, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1200.73 points, down 2.6% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1799.05 points, up 0.5% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 827.84 points, down 5.6% from the previous period [3]. Economic Data - The preliminary value of the euro - zone's manufacturing PMI in July was 49.8, higher than the expected 49.7; the preliminary value of the service PMI was 51.2, higher than the expected 50.7; the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 51, higher than the expected 50.8. The SENTIX investor confidence index in July jumped to 4.5 [3]. - China's manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [4]. - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI in July was 49.5, lower than the expected 52.7; the preliminary value of the service PMI was 55.2, higher than the expected 53; the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 54.6, a new high since December 2024 [4]. Policy and Market Situation - Trump continued to impose tariffs on multiple countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, which further hit transit trade. The Trump administration postponed the tariff negotiation date to August 1. Some shipping companies announced freight rate increases, and the market price range was set with a small price increase to test the market [5]. - The US - China tariff negotiation was postponed for 90 days. Maersk's recent quotes have been continuously declining, and the market is pessimistic about future prices [5]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: The short - term market may rebound. Risk - takers are advised to go long lightly below 1300 for the 2510 contract (already with a profit margin of over 300 points) and take partial profits; go short lightly for the EC2512 contract and take profits. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [5]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international situation turmoil, the market is mainly in a positive arbitrage structure with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with light positions [5]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback, and then judge the subsequent direction [5]. Contract Information - On August 12, the closing price of the main contract 2510 was 1417.6, down 1.48%, with a trading volume of 360,000 lots and an open interest of 560,000 lots, a decrease of 734 lots from the previous day [5]. - The up - limit and down - limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 were adjusted to 18%. The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 28%. The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was 100 lots [5].
集运日报:中美关税再度延期,现货运价持续走低,盘面偏弱震荡近期波动较大,不建议继续加仓,设置好止损-20250813
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo·2025-08-13 05:26