集运日报：中美关税再度延期，现货运价持续走低，盘面偏弱震荡，近期波动较大，不建议继续加仓，设置好止损。-20250813

Report Overview - Report Date: August 13, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Container Shipping Daily Report - Research Group: Shipping Research Team Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views - Geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties increase the difficulty of market gaming, suggesting light - position participation or observation [5] - The spot freight rate is continuously declining, and the market is bearish on future prices, with the market fluctuating weakly [2][5] Summary by Relevant Content Freight Index Data - On August 11, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2235.48 points, down 2.7% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1082.14 points, down 4.2% [3] - On August 8, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1053.86 points, down 3.11% from the previous period; the European route was 1257.71 points, down 8.37%; the US - West route was 1042.91 points, down 6.42% [3] - On August 8, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) composite index was 1489.68 points, down 61.06 points from the previous period; the European line price was 1961 USD/TEU, down 4.39%; the US - West route was 1823 USD/FEU, down 9.80% [3] - On August 8, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1200.73 points, down 2.6% from the previous period; the European route was 1799.05 points, up 0.5%; the US - West route was 827.84 points, down 5.6% [3] PMI Data - In July, the eurozone's manufacturing PMI initial value was 49.8, higher than the expected 49.7; the service PMI initial value was 51.2, higher than the expected 50.7; the composite PMI initial value was 51, higher than the expected 50.8. The SENTIX investor confidence index jumped to 4.5 [3] - In July, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [4] - In July, the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI initial value was 49.5 (expected 52.7), the service PMI initial value was 55.2 (expected 53), and the composite PMI initial value was 54.6, a new high since December 2024 [4] Tariff and Market Situation - Trump's government continues to impose tariffs on multiple countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, and delays the tariff negotiation date to August 1. Some shipping companies announce freight rate increases, and the spot market has a small price increase to test the market [5] - The China - US tariff is postponed for another 90 days, and Maersk's recent quotes are continuously decreasing [5] Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: The short - term market may rebound. Risk - takers are advised to go long lightly below 1300 for the 2510 contract (with a profit margin of over 300 points), and take partial profits; go short lightly for the EC2512 contract and take profits. Set stop - losses [5] - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international situation turmoil, with a positive spread structure and large fluctuations, it is recommended to wait and observe or try with a light position [5] - Long - term strategy: For each contract, take profits when the price rises, wait for the price to stabilize after a pull - back, and then judge the subsequent direction [5] Contract Information - On August 12, the main contract 2510 closed at 1417.6, down 1.48%, with a trading volume of 3.60 million lots and an open interest of 5.60 million lots, a decrease of 734 lots from the previous day [5] - The daily trading limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18%, the company's margin is adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [5]