光大期货煤化工商品日报-20250813

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Urea: Sideways [1] - Soda Ash: Bullish Sideways [1] - Glass: Bullish Sideways [1] Group 2: Core Views - Urea futures prices were firm and sideways on Tuesday, with the 09 contract closing at 1727 yuan/ton, up 0.52%, and the 01 contract at 1756 yuan/ton, up 0.46%. The spot market continued to weaken. The daily urea production was 19.38 tons, up 0.08 tons. The demand was divided, with domestic agricultural demand in the off - season and low - end purchasing interest rising. The spot market showed signs of stabilization, and the futures had support from related products like coal, but there was limited market drive, so a sideways view was recommended [1]. - Soda ash futures prices rose on Tuesday, with the 01 contract closing at 1409 yuan/ton, up 5.31%, and the 09 contract at 1292 yuan/ton, up 3.61%. The spot prices were mostly stable. The rise was affected by environmental protection expectations in Qinghai. The industry's operating rate was stable at 87.13%. The market worried about future supply decline, and with support from related futures prices, the short - term performance was expected to be positive, but chasing up was not recommended [1]. - Glass futures prices rose on Tuesday, with the 09 contract closing at 1073 yuan/ton, up 0.47%, and the 01 contract at 1240 yuan/ton, up 2.4%. The spot market was weak. The in - production capacity was stable, and the daily melting amount was 15.96 tons. The demand follow - up was weak. The futures were driven by rising raw material prices, but a trend - up needed more drivers [1]. Group 3: Market Information Urea - On August 12, the urea futures warehouse receipts on Zhengshang were 3823, up 200 from the previous day, and the valid forecasts were 0 [4]. - On August 12, the urea daily production was 19.38 tons, up 0.08 tons from the previous day and 2.89 tons from the same period last year. The operating rate was 83.71%, 8.92 percentage points higher than the same period last year [4]. - On August 12, small - particle urea spot prices in Shandong were 1720 yuan/ton, down 10; in Henan 1730 yuan/ton, down 10; in Hebei 1750 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Anhui 1740 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu 1730 yuan/ton, down 10; in Shanxi 1630 yuan/ton, unchanged [4]. Soda Ash & Glass - On August 12, the soda ash futures warehouse receipts on Zhengshang were 9275, up 1560 from the previous day, with valid forecasts of 1919; the glass futures warehouse receipts were 3543, unchanged [6]. - On August 12, soda ash spot prices in North China were 1250 yuan/ton for light and 1350 yuan/ton for heavy; in Central China 1180 yuan/ton for light and 1300 yuan/ton for heavy; in East China 1160 yuan/ton for light, down 20, and 1300 yuan/ton for heavy, etc. [6] - On August 12, the soda ash industry capacity utilization was 87.13%, the same as the previous day [7]. - On August 12, the average price of the float glass market was 1170 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the daily output was 15.96 tons, unchanged [7]. Group 4: Chart Analysis - The report includes charts of the closing prices, basis, trading volume and open interest, spreads, spot price trends, and futures price spreads of urea, soda ash, and glass, with data from iFind and the Everbright Futures Research Institute [9][11][13][16][18][20][21] Group 5: Research Team - The research team includes Zhang Xiaojin, Zhang Linglu, and Sun Chengzhen, who are responsible for different commodities and have multiple honors and achievements [23]