有色商品日报-20250813

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: Overnight copper fluctuated higher. US inflation pressure is controllable, strengthening the expectation of a 50 - basis - point interest rate cut in September. There are differences in views on the future of US copper. The domestic "Golden September" peak - season expectation and anti - involution policy expectations support prices, and copper maintains a relative balance between bulls and bears [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all fluctuated strongly. In August, the profit in the aluminum industry shifted from upstream to downstream. There are signs of a turn in the supply - demand of electrolytic aluminum, and the aluminum price is in a stage of trading time for space with an expectation of continued recovery. Aluminum alloy is in a tug - of - war between cost and demand, waiting for the peak - season guidance [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight LME nickel and Shanghai nickel both rose. The overall fundamentals changed little and showed a volatile operation [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - Copper: The US 7 - month CPI rose 2.7% year - on - year, core CPI reached 3.1%. The market has different views on US copper due to over - inventory. Domestic factors support prices, and copper is in a balanced state [1]. - Aluminum: AO2509 closed at 3287 yuan/ton with a 0.83% increase, AL2509 at 20800 yuan/ton with a 0.68% increase, and AD2511 at 20200 yuan/ton with a 0.55% increase. The SMM alumina price dropped to 3248 yuan/ton. There are changes in the supply - demand and profit distribution of the aluminum industry [1][2]. - Nickel: LME nickel rose 0.23% to 15360 dollars/ton, Shanghai nickel rose 0.2% to 122870 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 450 tons, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 30 tons. The overall fundamentals are stable [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Aluminum: The spot premium changed from - 50 yuan/ton to - 30 yuan/ton. The total inventory decreased by 3913 tons, and the alumina inventory increased by 3.9 tons [5]. - Nickel: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 600 yuan/ton. The total nickel inventory increased by 444 tons, and the stainless - steel warehouse receipts decreased by 253 tons [5]. - Zinc: The main settlement price decreased by 0.1%, and the social inventory increased by 0.77 tons [6]. - Tin: The main settlement price increased by 0.9%, and the LME0 - 3 premium increased by 22.16 dollars/ton [6]. 3. Chart Analysis - Spot Premium: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin [8][10][13]. - SHFE Near - Far Month Spread: Charts display the historical trends of near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin [16][20][21]. - LME Inventory: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin [23][25][27]. - SHFE Inventory: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin [30][32][34]. - Social Inventory: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel [36][38][40]. - Smelting Profit: Charts present the historical trends of the copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate [43][45][47]. Group 4: Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng: The current director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with over a decade of commodity research experience [50]. - Wang Heng: An analyst focusing on aluminum and silicon, providing timely policy interpretations and writing in - depth reports [50]. - Zhu Xi: An analyst focusing on lithium and nickel, focusing on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy [51].