Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests short - term range - bound trading for oil prices and medium - term short - side allocation [3] Group 2: Report's Core View - The significant reduction in Saudi Arabia's crude oil allocation to Chinese buyers in September reflects that Chinese state - owned refiners are optimizing their procurement strategies due to Saudi Arabia's high OSP and high domestic inventories. China's refined oil terminal consumption is sluggish, and crude oil procurement cannot deviate from refinery processing volume and refined oil terminal consumption in the long run [2] Group 3: Summary According to Market News and Important Data - On the New York Mercantile Exchange, the September - delivery light crude oil futures price dropped 79 cents to $63.17 per barrel, a 1.24% decline; the October - delivery Brent crude oil futures price on the London market fell 51 cents to $66.12 per barrel, a 0.77% decline. The SC crude oil main contract closed down 0.83% at 490 yuan per barrel [1] - OPEC raised its forecast for global oil demand next year and lowered its forecast for supply growth from the US and non - OPEC+ producers in its monthly report. In 2026, global oil demand will increase by 1.38 million barrels per day, 100,000 barrels per day higher than the previous forecast. Non - OPEC+ oil supply in 2026 will increase by about 630,000 barrels per day, down from the previous forecast of 730,000 barrels per day. In July, OPEC+ further increased production by 335,000 barrels per day [1] - In the first seven months of 2025, India's oil consumption decreased by 0.5% year - on - year, the second seasonal decline in more than two decades [1] - The EIA lowered its oil price forecast. It expects the average Brent crude oil price in 2025 to be $67.22 per barrel (previously $68.89 per barrel) and in 2026 to be $51.43 per barrel (previously $58.48 per barrel). It expects the average WTI price in 2025 to be $63.58 per barrel (previously $65.22 per barrel) and in 2026 to be $47.77 per barrel (previously $54.82 per barrel) [1] Group 4: Summary According to Strategy - The strategy is short - term range - bound trading for oil prices and medium - term short - side allocation [3] Group 5: Summary According to Risks - Downside risks include the US relaxing sanctions on Russia and macro black - swan events; upside risks include the US tightening sanctions on Russia and large - scale supply disruptions caused by Middle East conflicts [3]
原油日报：沙特对中国买家原油分配量下降-20250813
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-08-13 06:52