资产价格研究：A股“跑赢”行情的新高度

Group 1: A-Share Market Performance - The A-share market has surpassed the previous high of 3674 points set on October 8, 2022, indicating a significant upward trend[4] - The A-share market has outperformed GDP growth for four consecutive quarters as of Q2 2025, marking the first time since the second half of 2021[4] - The report highlights the resilience of the A-share market amid various domestic and international pressures, emphasizing its importance in stabilizing and activating the capital market[4] Group 2: Economic Framework and Market Trends - The report introduces a framework that decomposes nominal GDP into real GDP and the GDP deflator, suggesting that different combinations of these factors correspond to various economic scenarios[4] - Historical examples from the U.S. in the 1990s and Japan in the early 2000s illustrate that when real economic growth rises while the GDP deflator declines or remains low, the probability of the stock market outperforming the economy increases[4] - Conversely, during periods of weak supply and demand or stagflation, the stock market struggles to outperform the economy, as evidenced by experiences in Europe and Japan[5] Group 3: Future Market Scenarios - Two potential paths for the A-share market's future performance are identified: a technology-driven "slow bull" route with rising real GDP and low inflation, or a cyclical recovery route with simultaneous increases in both real GDP and inflation[8] - The first scenario aligns with current policy trends and the anticipated direction of industrial development, while the second scenario would require significant macroeconomic policy support[8] - Risks include potential underperformance of policy initiatives, unexpected changes in domestic and international economic conditions, and increased asset volatility due to external risks[8]