光大期货软商品日报-20250813

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Cotton: The 01 contract of cotton may face the pressure of expected high - yield new cotton and low opening price, but the domestic cotton supply - demand pattern in the 2025/26 season has no major contradictions. With the current cotton price at a relatively low level and limited downward drivers, in the medium - to - long - term, after the market digests the pressure of new cotton listing and along with the macro - economic improvement, the price will oscillate upwards [1]. - Sugar: The short - term sugar futures price may be boosted by the strengthening of raw sugar, but the fundamental driving force is not strong, and the sustainability of the price rebound depends on the external market [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - Cotton: On Tuesday, ICE US cotton rose 2.52% to 68.44 cents per pound, and CF601 rose 0.79% to 13,980 yuan per ton. The position of the main contract increased by 31,124 lots to 413,000 lots. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang was 15,052 yuan per ton, up 5 yuan per ton from the previous day, and the China Cotton Price Index for Grade 3128B was 15,177 yuan per ton, up 16 yuan per ton. In the international market, the US CPI annual rate was lower than expected, increasing the expectation of a September interest rate cut. In the domestic market, the main contract switched to the 01 contract, and the position gradually increased. Besides the macro - factors, weather and demand should also be focused on [1]. - Sugar: In August 2024, Brazil's sugar export volume was 3.9208 million tons, with a daily average export volume of 178,200 tons. In the first week of August 2025, Brazil exported 1.094 million tons of sugar and molasses, with a daily average export volume of 182,300 tons. The spot price of sugar in different regions had some adjustments. Raw sugar rebounded for three consecutive days, boosting the market sentiment [1]. Daily Data Monitoring - Cotton: The 9 - 1 contract spread was - 245 yuan, down 45 yuan; the main contract basis was 1,197 yuan, down 84 yuan. The spot price in Xinjiang was 15,052 yuan per ton, up 5 yuan, and the national spot price was 15,177 yuan per ton, up 16 yuan [2]. - Sugar: The 9 - 1 contract spread was 101 yuan, down 5 yuan; the main contract basis was 362 yuan, down 35 yuan. The spot price in Nanning was 5,960 yuan per ton, unchanged, and in Liuzhou was 5,970 yuan per ton, unchanged [2]. Market Information - Cotton: On August 12, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 8,087, down 85 from the previous day, with 282 valid forecasts. The cotton arrival prices in different domestic regions were reported. The yarn comprehensive load was 49.3, unchanged; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 29.5, down 0.2; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 48.3, up 0.2; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 33.4, down 0.3 [3]. - Sugar: On August 12, the spot price of sugar in Nanning and Liuzhou remained unchanged. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 17,853, down 387 from the previous day, with 0 valid forecasts [3][4]. Chart Analysis - Multiple charts were presented, including those related to cotton (such as the closing price, basis, 9 - 1 spread, 1% tariff quota internal - external spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, and China Cotton Price Index) and sugar (such as the closing price, basis, 9 - 1 spread, and warehouse receipts and valid forecasts) [6][9][11][14][17]. Research Team Personnel Introduction - Zhang Xiaojin, the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on the sugar industry and has won many awards [19]. - Zhang Linglu, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is responsible for research on futures varieties such as urea and soda - ash glass and has also won many honors [20]. - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton and has won relevant titles [21].