贵金属日报：通胀数据降温，降息预期获进一步巩固-20250813

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Bullish, with the Au2510 contract expected to oscillate between 765 yuan/gram - 785 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish, with the Ag2510 contract expected to oscillate between 9100 yuan/kilogram - 9350 yuan/kilogram [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [8] - Options: On hold [8] 2. Core View - The market's trading focus has shifted back to easing expectations. The cooling inflation and concerns about the US economy have strengthened the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, strongly supporting precious metal prices [1][8] - Although the Sino-US tariff risk has been temporarily resolved, the decline in tariff risk premium has limited impact on gold prices [8] - Silver's trading logic is in sync with gold, and with the rising rate cut expectation and the regression of the gold-silver ratio, silver prices are expected to continue rising [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Inflation and Policy Expectations - In July, US CPI was 2.7% year-on-year, lower than the expected 2.8%, and core CPI was 3.1% year-on-year, higher than the expected 3%. After the data release, the market expected a Fed rate cut in September with a probability over 90% [1] - US President Trump urged the Fed to cut rates, and Treasury Secretary suggested a 50-basis-point cut in September [1] 3.2 Tariff Progress - China and the US issued a joint statement. Both sides will continue to suspend the implementation of 24% reciprocal tariffs for 90 days starting from August 12 [1] 3.3 Futures Market - On August 12, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 777.52 yuan/gram and closed at 776.04 yuan/gram, down 0.44% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots [2] - The Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 9,180 yuan/kilogram and closed at 9,187 yuan/kilogram, down 0.25% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 291,143 lots, and the open interest was 349,123 lots [2] 3.4 US Treasury Yields and Spreads - On August 12, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield was 4.29%, up 2 basis points from the previous trading day, and the 10-year - 2-year spread was 0.57%, up 0.06% [3] 3.5 Position and Volume Changes - On the Au2508 contract, the long position decreased by 81 lots, and the short position decreased by 42 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts decreased by 31.67% [4] - On the Ag2508 contract, the long position decreased by 68 lots, and the short position decreased by 70 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai silver contracts decreased by 26.01% [4] 3.6 ETF Holdings - The gold ETF holdings increased by 4.58 tons to 964.22 tons, and the silver ETF holdings increased by 40.96 tons to 15,099.56 tons [5] 3.7 Arbitrage and Premiums - On August 12, 2025, the domestic gold premium was -4.22 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -542.83 yuan/kilogram [6] - The ratio of the main contracts of Shanghai gold and silver futures was about 84.47, down 0.19% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold-silver ratio was 88.72, up 0.86% [6] 3.8 Fundamental Data - On August 12, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange decreased by 18.85%, and the trading volume of silver decreased by 4.85% [7] - The gold delivery volume was 8,250 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 24,750 kilograms [7]