油脂日报：加菜籽反垄断，油脂震荡上行-20250813

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Neutral [4] 2. Core View of the Report - Yesterday, the prices of the three major oils fluctuated and rose. The market is worried that the ruling on Canadian rapeseed will increase the cost of imported rapeseed, pushing up oil prices. Coupled with the positive expectations of the palm oil B50 plan, the overall oil market is oscillating strongly [1][3] - The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from August 1 - 10 is expected to increase significantly. India's soybean oil imports in the 2024/25 fiscal year are expected to soar, while palm oil and sunflower oil imports are expected to decline. China's edible vegetable oil imports in the 2024/25 fiscal year are estimated to be adjusted, and the supply - demand forecast for the 2025/26 fiscal year remains unchanged. Favorable rainfall in peanut - producing areas is beneficial for peanut production [2] 3. Summary by Related Content Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Yesterday, the closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 9362.00 yuan/ton, a change of +144 yuan or +1.56%; the soybean oil 2509 contract was 8476.00 yuan/ton, a change of +36.00 yuan or +0.43%; the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9802.00 yuan/ton, a change of +214.00 yuan or +2.23% [1] - Spot: In Guangdong, the spot price of palm oil was 9320.00 yuan/ton, a change of +320.00 yuan or +3.56%, with a spot basis of P09 + - 42.00, a change of +176.00 yuan; in Tianjin, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8570.00 yuan/ton, a change of +20.00 yuan/ton or +0.23%, with a spot basis of Y09 + 94.00, a change of - 16.00 yuan; in Jiangsu, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9910.00 yuan/ton, a change of +210.00 yuan or +2.16%, with a spot basis of OI09 + 108.00, a change of - 4.00 yuan [1] Market News - The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from August 1 - 10 is expected to be 339,143 tons, a 65.25% increase from the same period last month [2] - China has made a preliminary ruling on anti - dumping investigations of imported rapeseed from Canada and will implement temporary anti - dumping measures in the form of deposits starting from August 14, 2025 [2] - India's soybean oil imports in the 2024/25 fiscal year are expected to soar 60% to 5.5 million tons, while palm oil imports may drop 13.5% to 7.8 million tons, and sunflower oil imports may drop 20% to 2.8 million tons [2] - In the 2024/25 fiscal year, China's edible vegetable oil imports are estimated to be 7.56 million tons, a decrease of 170,000 tons from the previous month's estimate. Palm oil imports are reduced by 400,000 tons, soybean oil imports by 50,000 tons, and rapeseed oil and other vegetable oil imports are increased by 100,000 tons and 180,000 tons respectively [2] - The supply - demand forecast for China's edible vegetable oil in the 2025/26 fiscal year remains unchanged from the previous month [2] - Favorable rainfall in peanut - producing areas such as Henan, Hebei, and Shandong is beneficial for peanut production [2] Strategy - The strategy is neutral [4]